Rats and cold in the trenches, fears and disappointed hopes in the hinterland: In Ukraine, the enthusiasm from the period after the victories in Kharkiv and Kherson has evaporated. “We are where we are and we just have to keep going,” says a Kiev resident.
A difficult year for Ukraine is coming to an end. 2023 began with bloody fighting for Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. At the same time, the situation in the hinterland was difficult because the constant Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure in the winter repeatedly led to massive power outages. The expected offensive in the south followed in the summer, which did not go as hoped: While there had been long discussions in the West about increasing military support after the successes in autumn 2022, Russia had used the time to dig in. Overcoming the developed positions without air superiority and sufficient equipment for mine clearance proved difficult. The Ukrainian military leadership therefore had to change tactics: Instead of attacking with large technical columns, the Ukrainian army has since relied on smaller storm groups.
So far the results have been rather mixed. Whether the word “failed” is appropriate in its brutality given the 17 kilometers that the Ukrainian army has advanced south is open to debate. But on the one hand, it at least created a kind of staging area for possible future actions. And on the other hand, under the given circumstances and with the resources available, only a few armies would have achieved this. In addition, we should not lose sight of the fact that it is not a given that the more than 850 kilometer long front will be held, apart from minor Russian successes – especially now, when, in addition to the weather, there are thousands of mice and rats that threaten the soldiers create additional problems in the trenches.
“Deep in our hearts we all believe in miracles”
Although there are no systematic power outages yet, the mood in the hinterland is different than it was after victories in Kharkiv and Kherson last year. “I had no illusions about an end to the war this year, I’m realistic enough for that,” says Julia, a 50-year-old Kiev woman whose son is currently in the army. “What I was hoping for, however, was to have a certain orientation for the future by the end of the year. At least a little planning security.” Being able to plan from day to day at most for almost two years has been extremely tiring. However, Russia is solely to blame for this, as it could end the war at any time, emphasizes Julia. “Deep in our hearts, we all believe in miracles. There were miracles in this war,” says computer science student Mychajlo. “It wouldn’t have been possible to prevent excessive expectations anyway. But we’re where we are and we just have to move on. Simpler and nicer alternatives would be nice, but they’re not particularly realistic.”
Ukrainians have a whole range of concerns. There is a fear that the power supply this winter could be as bad as it was a year ago. The mobilization that has been ongoing since February 24, 2022 is also a sensitive issue that men in particular deal with differently. And of course people are noticing that Western support is crumbling right now, at this fateful moment – while Russia is increasing its military budget for next year by 70 percent compared to 2023 and is factoring in three more years of war in its budget planning. The crisis in the US Congress is also a daily topic of conversation, and it is noted that in November Ukraine received the least aid so far in this war.
“It was a year of crazy emotional swings,” says well-known political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko, who heads the Center for Applied Political Research, Penta, in Kiev. “From the fall onwards, it became clear that the war was by no means going to end quickly and that the main problem was the lack of military resources, especially ammunition.” Emotional fatigue also plays a role. The disappointment led to mutual accusations in Ukrainian politics. “Now it’s time for all of us to calm down,” said Fessenko. This applies especially to public figures such as President Volodymyr Zelensky, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valeriy Zalushny, as well as Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko and former President Petro Poroshenko – both of whom are in opposition to Zelensky.
Confidence in Zelensky remains high – but not in the government
In fact, domestic political tensions have increased significantly recently. The difficulties in the relationship between Zelensky and Zalushny are more due to contradictions between the political and military situation, although a certain jealousy between the two most popular people in the country would be almost natural. However, the words of Kiev Mayor Klitschko, who warned in “Spiegel” of authoritarian tendencies in Ukraine, were sharply criticized in political Kiev itself by the opposition and his comparisons to Russia were labeled as “absurd” and “hardly any progress.”
The eternal conflict between Zelensky and the national-conservative camp of ex-President Poroshenko, which dominated Ukrainian politics before the Russian invasion, is currently more visible than ever. After MPs close to Poroshenko demonstratively played up the issue of tensions between Zelensky and Saluzhny and also spread some demonstrably false reports about it, Poroshenko was denied permission to travel to the EU and the USA for political talks. Officially because, among other things, he wanted to meet the Russia-friendly Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Unofficially, however, this step is clearly understood as a response by the President’s office to the actions of those around him.
According to the latest survey by the Rating Group opinion institute, Zelensky continues to enjoy broad support in Ukraine: 71 percent trust the president. However, the declining trust in the government of Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal, currently below 40 percent, and the catastrophic trust level for parliament of just over 20 percent show a certain dissatisfaction with the state of things. “Again, the maximum concentration of forces, resources and political consolidation is required,” says political scientist Fessenko. “We have no choice but to continue the fight against the Russian horde. We have to endure the current problems and wait. Winter will be over in a few months – and spring is traditionally associated with new hopes for Ukrainians.”