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Things happened quickly this week. First there was this interview that the Armenian prime minister gave to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. Russia is withdrawing from the region, said Nikol Pashinyan: “One day we will wake up and Russia is not there.”
The Kremlin then said: Russia is an integral part of the region and Russia cannot leave Armenia at all. Then it became known that Armenia was sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine – for the first time since the start of the Russian war of aggression. And finally, Armenia wants to hold a joint military exercise with the USA next week.
Bitter disappointment for the Armenians
This doesn’t go down well in Moscow, as they see Armenia as a vassal that they have in their hands. Officially, Armenia is an ally and belongs to the CSTO military alliance led by Russia. But Moscow has been supplying weapons to Azerbaijan for years. Moscow also failed to fulfill its obligation to provide assistance when Azerbaijan invaded Armenian territory.
And Russia is also remaining passive in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh: the Russian peacekeepers stationed there have allowed Azerbaijan to block access to the mountainous area for months. The Armenians, who until now have largely been pro-Moscow, are bitterly disappointed with the former protecting power.
Averting Armenia as a cry for help?
That’s why Yerevan is looking for other partners. It buys weapons from India – instead of from Russia as before – and has invited an EU observer mission to the country. And there is a strong reliance on mediation by the EU and the USA in the conflict with Azerbaijan. At the same time, the Armenian leadership tried for a long time not to anger Moscow too much.
But now Yerevan is sending a signal to the EU and the USA that it seriously wants to turn away from Moscow. But all of this also seems like a cry for help, because people in Armenia are expecting that another Azerbaijani attack is imminent. There are increasing signs that Azerbaijan is massing troops and military material around Nagorno-Karabakh.
Great annoyance in Moscow
There is great anger in Moscow. According to the Russian news agency Tass, the Kremlin sees the Armenian leadership’s statements as a result of Western interference and an attempt to drive Russia out of the South Caucasus. Through its own behavior, Moscow has contributed to Armenia turning its back. But Russia still has many levers in Armenia: it has troops stationed in the country and owns part of the economic infrastructure. And it can support Azerbaijan even more than before. Breaking away from Russia entails many risks for Armenia.