So much for being invulnerable
Polls show consequences of Trump’s conviction
By Roland Peters, New York
17.06.2024, 20:55
US President Biden is in an unpopularity hole. But new figures show that if more happens against Donald Trump, the guilty verdict in the hush money trial could even cost him the election victory.
He loves to portray himself as the president of the hearts. Of the people. Of the “silent majority” who doesn’t care what he is accused of. After all, Donald Trump was elected anyway in 2016. His misogyny didn’t matter. The same goes for the rumors about his affairs. Nobody cared about his fraudulent “university.” After that, the Republican repeatedly portrayed himself as an innocent victim. “Witch hunt!” he has been praying into microphones for years and shouting it in block letters through the echo chambers of social networks.
In the Manhattan hush money trial, he was found guilty for the first time ever in a criminal case: for falsifying documents to cover up violations of the election law. On the sidelines of the court proceedings, the presidential candidate-elect regularly said that Joe Biden’s administration had orchestrated the prosecution, but that none of this would affect him in view of the election in November. Now poll results show something different. The guilty verdict has potential political consequences; for some, the conviction is important. The election in November is therefore more open than before. If more goes against Trump, the hush money trial could ultimately make him the loser.
So-called independent voters in particular expressed themselves accordingly: 21 percent said that because of Trump’s guilty verdict they would be less likely to vote for him and that the verdict had a major impact on their decision. Only 5 percent said that they would therefore be more likely to vote for Trump. Of all voters taken together, 22 percent said the verdict had a negative effect on the Republican and 6 percent said it had a positive effect.
However, these figures can change again due to further events. The sentence is scheduled to be announced on July 11. There are still television debates, the nomination conventions, and much more that could become an election issue.
Biden in unpopularity hole
In the states that are likely to be decisive, the “battleground states,” Trump and Biden are close together, with a slight advantage for the challenger: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Hardly any Republicans will be changed; 80 percent of them believe that Trump was impeached on the orders of Biden’s administration. The verdict hardly makes a difference. But it does for the others: As was the case four years ago, the main motivation of pro-Biden voters is that they are against Trump.
For the Democrat, it is therefore particularly important to mobilize enough of his own voters and to win over independent voters. Only 2 to 3 percent of eligible voters are actual swing voters with no tendency. At the same time, Biden is in a historic unpopularity hole. Only around 40 percent of Americans are satisfied with him. Never before has a president been re-elected with such approval ratings.
But these are unusual times. Since Trump’s election victory in 2016, previous assumptions about the voting behavior of Americans have proven to be outdated time and again. For example, even before the ruling, the proportion of those who rejected both Biden and Trump was historically high: 25 percent. This is unlikely to have changed.
Third-party candidates with no real chance
However, no one can really take advantage of the discontent. Of the three other presidential candidates, only the independent Robert F. Kennedy has a tiny chance: but this chance could also be dashed if he does not qualify for the televised debate on June 27. In theory, Kennedy would have to be on the ballot in enough states to win the election. He is far from that.
Trump and Biden will most likely have a duel on TV, just like in 2020. Because the Republican often didn’t want to let the Democrat finish speaking, there is a new rule: when one speaks, the other’s microphone is turned off. Biden will not miss the opportunity to harp on about Trump’s conviction. After all, the numbers now show in black and white: Trump is vulnerable.