Nord Stream gas pipeline leaks: What’s behind it?

At least three leaks in the gas pipelines that go directly from Russia to Germany have caused a sharp drop in pressure. There are many indications of an attack, but the motive is unclear.

Many tubes, many questions: the leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines are a mystery.

Fabrizio Bensch / Reuters

Not only Russia is an enigma surrounded by a mystery hidden in a secret, as Winston Churchill once said of the country. No, the leaks in the Baltic Sea natural gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 also fall into this category. Such accidents are very rare in natural gas pipelines. Three leaks in a row from two different tubes is extremely unlikely. An attack on the pipelines is plausible. Apparently the Danish government also came to this conclusion. The Swedish government also considers sabotage to be likely. What is less obvious, however, is who might be behind it and what the benefit is.

Kyiv, Moscow or Washington?

Could it have been Ukraine? However, it would be a risky move with an undetermined outcome for Kyiv if Russia has not allowed natural gas to flow through the pipelines for some time anyway. Or did Moscow want to boost the price of natural gas, which has fallen somewhat in the past? That could be. However, this would make it clear that no more natural gas will come via Nord Stream 1 in the foreseeable future.

So far, Russia has been able to play with the fact that gas might still flow if Germany and the West behave well. This is now installed. The voices for the opening of Nord Stream 2, the completed but not commissioned pipeline, go unheeded. As a result, Russia would lose leverage over public opinion in Germany.

A Russian action under a “false flag” is also suspected. However, this sounds more like three-dimensional chess than an obvious plan. Moscow could hope that Berlin will feel compelled to be interested in repairing the pipelines. Moscow could also try to protect itself against any legal consequences.

However, the assumptions do not sound very plausible. It remains a provocation by NATO, or rather by the Americans, which sounds far-fetched. Militant environmentalists are also listed as possible polluters. Last but not least, the possibility of an unforeseen incident cannot be completely ruled out.

vulnerable infrastructure

Today is also the opening of a natural gas pipeline from Norway via Denmark to Poland. The Baltic Pipe was created primarily to increase the security of supply in Poland. It intersects with the Nord Stream tubes in the Baltic Sea not far from the leaks. Is the incident a slightly subtle hint that this line can also be cut?

Many questions are still unanswered, but the events already allow some conclusions: First, Russia’s gas weapon seems to be becoming somewhat blunter. News of the leaks has prompted a strong reaction on the European reference price for natural gas; but one cannot speak of a panic price movement. However, price hikes accelerated amid speculation that Russia could also shut down the transit route via Ukraine.

Second, the incidents demonstrate how vulnerable the power supply infrastructure can be to attacks. Pipelines certainly stand out here because they are real bottlenecks and difficult to protect. The sabotage of pipelines from Norway, currently the EU’s largest gas supplier, poses a major risk. A leak in one of these gas pipelines would have serious short-term consequences.

Urgent Independence

Third, it underscores the importance of LNG for Europe’s security of supply. Although large facilities such as terminals are also used here, the delivery is more decentralized than with gas transport through underwater pipelines and is therefore less susceptible to such scenarios.

Whatever the background to the leaks, one thing is clear: Europe’s energy supply must become more independent, more independent of individual transport routes, individual suppliers and individual energy sources. It is still difficult to solve a riddle. But at least it can’t do much damage.

You can contact the business editor Gerald Hosp follow on twitter.


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