Compared to the federal election, all government parties have collapsed in the European elections. The political fringes, on the other hand, have been strengthened. The traffic light coalition no longer has any argument to continue. Chancellor Olaf Scholz must do the country one last service – and clear the way for new elections.
Polls are not election results, is the mantra of unpopular government parties. On the evening of the European elections, the traffic light coalition has it in black and white: According to projections, the SPD, Greens and FDP together are as strong as the Union with just over 30 percent. Compared to the 2021 federal election, the government parties are getting about 20 percentage points less. The SPD campaigned with Chancellor Olaf Scholz and got almost twelve percentage points less than in 2021. The political fringes, meanwhile, are stronger than ever in the 75-year history of the Federal Republic. The government coalition has not a single argument for another year and a half of hanging and choking. None. There are plenty of counterarguments.
The most important thing is that the country is drifting apart. The right-wing radical AfD has become the second strongest political force, even with two pro-Russian top candidates who are being pursued by corruption allegations. In the east, the AfD is even in first place, well ahead of all the traffic light parties combined. The populist alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht achieved a double-digit result straight away in the new federal states. What can these parties do if they manage to run a professional election campaign? The coalition may not be solely responsible for the rise of radical forces. But the traffic light coalition has not stopped them either.
Content gutted
Even if it has not a few merits, for example in dealing with the energy crisis after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the traffic light coalition lacks arguments in terms of its program to continue. The three-party coalition has reached its end in terms of content ahead of the upcoming, highly complex negotiations on the 2025 budget. There is no common concept of how the alarmingly sluggish economy can be boosted and how Ukraine can continue to be supported to a reasonable extent. The coalition parties are also divided on climate and social policy. There is no major project that this government is still pursuing as one. Simply holding out until the regular federal election date is not an agenda – and if so, then only one in favor of populists and extremists.
Another mantra shows how much the traffic light coalition has now been gutted in terms of content: “Less conflict,” representatives of the SPD, Greens and FDP have been promising for two years now, including this Sunday. But they never stick to it for long, and this time even less so: In initial reactions to the European election results, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and FDP leader Christian Lindner have already announced tough negotiations over the budget for 2025. The tone is gradually becoming harsher in the alliance that once started out so ambitiously. In this way, too, the traffic light coalition is damaging the political culture of this country. Confidence in the problem-solving power of the political culture of compromise is declining. Yet this culture of compromise has made Germany strong for decades.
The country is above the person
With the Union, which is the success of CDU leader Friedrich Merz, there is a centrist party ready to take on responsibility and form a government. With the extremely popular Boris Pistorius, the SPD has a federal politician in its ranks whom people would probably like to see as chancellor – if he were to stand for election. With a European election result of around 5 percent, the FDP can risk a federal election that does not necessarily result in expulsion.
And with all their experiences of the past few months, the Greens must ask themselves whether continued participation in government will ultimately do more harm than good to climate protection. This existential concern has never been as unpopular as after two and a half years of Habeck and Co.
If Olaf Scholz were to ask for a vote of confidence, the traffic light factions could dissolve their coalition government in an orderly manner and clear the way for new elections. It would be the chancellor’s last, great service to the country. As bitter as this failure may be for him and his colleagues personally, a failure of democracy due to a continued loss of trust in those in power would weigh considerably more heavily.