Olaf Scholz and the winning strategy of the “coffee break” with Viktor Orban

LETTER FROM BRUSSELS

What if the European Union (EU) had experienced its “Olaf Scholz moment”? The German chancellor, entangled in his internal political problems, has so far not distinguished himself by his ability to help Europeans make compromises. But in mid-December, during the meeting of the Twenty-Seven, which was held in Brussels, he found the solution which made it possible to avoid the Hungarian veto against the opening of Kiev’s accession negotiations to the EU .

For days, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been repeating his objections, arguing that the Union cannot consider taking into its fold a country at war and as corrupt as Ukraine. Especially, he continued, that its integration could only destabilize the community structure.

At the Council table, Thursday, December 14, his twenty-six counterparts, once again, explained at length why it was essential to send a strong political signal to Volodymyr Zelensky, while his counter-offensive is at an impasse and that the United States is torn apart over the continuation of its aid to kyiv. They also, and above all, reminded him of the need to stand up to Vladimir Putin who, since the start of the war in Ukraine, has been banking on the division of Europeans. Without achieving anything.

Also read the story: Article reserved for our subscribers The European Union opens Ukraine’s accession negotiations

When suddenly, Olaf Scholz suggested to Viktor Orban to go ” have coffee “, the time for its peers to decide to open accession negotiations. The social democrat knows this technique well, tested within the working community of young socialists within the SPD (Jusos), of which he was vice-president in the early 1980s, and which makes it possible to do without the vote of dissidents. by getting them out. European jurists have confirmed this: it could be transposed to community affairs since the abstention of one or other of the heads of state or government does not prevent a unanimous decision, as long as a certain quorum is reached.

Unorthodox proposal

The nationalist leader was quick to accept the chancellor’s unorthodox proposal. Especially since it could still derail the process: twice, in the coming months, the Twenty-Seven will have to decide unanimously for the accession negotiations to truly open. And it’s hard to imagine that the “coffee break” ploy will be repeated!

On Friday, Viktor Orban was able to return to Budapest with his head held high, assuring his fellow citizens that “Hungary did not participate in this bad decision”without permanently alienating its partners and taking the risk that they will make it pay, on other issues, for its obstruction.

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