Olaf Scholz consolidates his favorite position

“We have our new Helmut Schmidt! “ After listening to Olaf Scholz come to host a public meeting in a Biergarten on the banks of the Spree, Friday September 3 in Berlin, Roland Biela does not hide his enthusiasm. “You can feel the type who has his feet on the ground, who is serious, solid, who does not bring her back and does not hold people down. He will make a very good chancellor ”, affirms this retiree who defines himself as “Social democratic sympathizer”. Before adding: “He still has to be elected. However, there are still three weeks before the elections, and when we know the capacity of the SPD to do stupid things, there is something to be worried about. “

What Roland Biela says corresponds to what many Germans think, potentially seduced by the reassuring sobriety of the current finance minister but less by his party as such, and finally quite cautious in the face of a campaign whose outcome above all seems very uncertain to a large majority of them.

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It remains that in the last wave of ARD-Deutschlandtrend barometer, published Thursday, Olaf Scholz does indeed obtain impressive scores, and is well ahead of the two other candidates for the chancellery, Armin Laschet (CDU-CSU) and Annalena Baerbock (Greens). Deemed to be the most competent by 55% of those questioned (against 14% for Mr. Laschet and 7% for Mr.me Baerbock), he is also considered the most credible (43%) and the most sympathetic (42%), two criteria on which he is ahead of his opponents by more than 20 points. And when we ask the Germans for which of the three they would vote if the election of the chancellor was by direct universal suffrage, the answer is clear: Scholz 43%, Laschet 16% and Baerbock 12%.

Laschet’s odd

How to explain such figures? “The luck of Scholz is above all to have in front of him a CDU-CSU candidate of immense weakness. If Laschet was not a candidate, Scholz would probably have no chance ”, says Albrecht von Lucke, editor-in-chief of the journal Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik.

The study of the popularity curves of the two candidates confirms this analysis. At the beginning of July, Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz obtained almost identical scores when voters were asked to say for which they would vote as chancellor. A month later, the CDU-CSU candidate had lost 13 points, while that of the SPD had gained 12. In the meantime: the floods of mid-July in the Rhineland and the famous image of Armin Laschet filmed hilariously in the background of Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in one of the devastated municipalities. “Laschet’s behavior during the floods especially this laugh perhaps closed the doors of the Chancellery to him, says Albrecht von Lucke. At the same time, Scholz made no mistake. On the contrary. As finance minister and vice-chancellor, he quickly released aid, which made him appear as the one who comes to the aid of people in need. “

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