On Sunday question
Wagenknecht party above the 5 percent hurdle
January 21, 2024, 3:14 a.m
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According to a survey, the BSW party, founded by former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht, could currently expect seven percent of the vote in a federal election. A possible new party that could emerge from the union of values would therefore have a voter potential of 5 percent.
According to a survey, the newly founded Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is at seven percent. If there were a federal election this Sunday, the BSW would enter parliament. This emerges from a survey by the opinion research institute Insa for “Bild am Sonntag”, which was published this Sunday.
In the “Sunday Trend”, which the opinion research institute INSA collects weekly for the newspaper, the BSW was regularly polled alongside other parties for the first time. In a survey published a week ago, the institute determined an approval rating of 14 percent for a separate question about the BSW.
When asked “If there were a federal election next Sunday, how would you vote?” 13 percent said they were SPD. That was two percentage points less than the previous week. This puts the Social Democrats on par with the Greens, who gained one point compared to the previous week and also ended up at 13 percent.
The Union remains the strongest force with an unchanged 30 percent, followed by the AfD with 22 percent (+/- 0). The FDP remains stable at 5 percent, the Left loses one point and comes to 3 percent. The other parties received 7 percent (-5) of the votes, of which 3 percent went to the Free Voters.
In the latest trend barometer for RTL and ntv, created by the opinion research institute Forsa and published last Tuesday, the BSW was surveyed, but it was below the limit of 3 percent. The alliance is therefore still listed there under “Other”.
Survey is not a forecast
On behalf of “Bild am Sonntag”, Insa also surveyed the parties’ current voter potential in Germany. A possible new party that could emerge from the union of values would therefore have a voter potential of 5 percent.
Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.