Commercial satellites are providing images of a mile-long Russian military convoy apparently en route to Kyiv. Can this still be stopped? No, say experts. Ukraine’s western allies are watching helplessly as the war goes on.
An end to the hostilities in Ukraine is far from in sight. Worse still, military experts like Thomas Wiegold assume that Russia will continue to increase the pressure on its neighbor. “There are increasing attacks with rocket artillery,” said the military expert in an interview with ntv. It is to be feared that civilian infrastructure will increasingly be targeted. This analysis is symbolized by a huge military convoy that has been causing a stir among observers since the beginning of the week.
Satellite images showed the convoy stretching about 40 miles north of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Monday. According to US-based company Maxar Technologies, which sourced the footage, the military train stretched “from the area around Antonov Airport in the south to the area around Prybirsk” in the north. Antonov Airport is around 25 kilometers from the center of Kiev. As can be seen from the air, the cars moving one after the other include supply and tank vehicles as well as artillery.
For Sven Bernhard Gareis, the military convoy marks the beginning of the second wave of attacks by the Russian military. “The convoy will bring supplies of large equipment, fuel and ammunition, which is a very important task in such a war of aggression,” said the political scientist with a focus on international security policy in an interview with ntv.de.
The Russian armed forces encountered strong resistance from the Ukrainians in the first wave and suffered heavy casualties. In addition, logistical deficiencies have repeatedly stalled the military operation. “The poor planning and leadership on the Russian side naturally favored the previous Ukrainian resistance.” In addition, according to Gareis, many Russian soldiers initially did not even know that they were being sent to war, but thought they were practicing maneuvers at the border. “It’s part of the nature of the Russian military leadership that people are not informed. They are treated as material that is ignored.”
Ukraine can only wait
The second wave is now bringing fresh forces and war material with it. An important dimension is also the fuel, which the attackers apparently ran out again and again soon after the start of the invasion. Since armored cars and artillery were also advancing with the military column, Gareis expressed concern “that these forces will be used to continue to inflict violence on the civilian population”. He fears that attempts could now be made to fire more rockets and artillery at Kyiv from outside. The convoy is still lined up like a string of pearls. Exactly what Russian President Putin intends to do with the forces remains to be seen once they have been placed in an appropriate attack position.
So the world is watching as this column moves leisurely towards Kyiv. Why isn’t she stopped? “That has to do with the fact that the Russian armed forces managed to largely eliminate the Ukrainian air force,” said Gareis. Putin’s army now has complete air superiority in Ukraine. “Therefore, the convoy can move freely and be brought to fruition.” Ukraine has some armed drones that are already in use, but these are not enough. A shelling from Kyiv is also not possible due to the current distance.
Recently, the discussion arose that the West or neighboring countries such as Poland could install a no-fly zone or airspace closure over Ukraine. “But that would be tantamount to Western countries entering the war,” Gareis analyzed. “That was categorically ruled out for good reason.”
So the reins of action currently lie with Russia. Ukraine can only wait. Should the military vehicles from the convoy actually penetrate into the center of the capital, Ukraine would have modern anti-tank missiles at its disposal “which can be used very effectively against Russian tanks,” said the scientist. The Russian side would then have to reckon with considerable resistance – also from the civilian population. But exactly what Putin intends to do with the convoy can only be speculated, says Gareis: “Either he will encircle Kyiv, or he will attack the city directly, or he will switch to external missile and artillery fire.”
“Tanks are then the most unsuitable weapon ever”
This coincides with Franz-Stefan Gady’s assessment. After the convoy satellite images became known, the military expert reckoned with an imminent storming of Kyiv. In an interview with Deutschlandfunk, the researcher from the British “International Institute for Strategic Studies” said on Tuesday that there would be a so-called combined arms battle. “Russian forces will be more artillery, they are likely to be more heavy-handed, they are likely to be more area-wide bombardments.” This is just the beginning of the war.
Should there be a fight on urban terrain, that would be an advantage for the defenders, says Gareis. “Tanks are then the most unsuitable weapon ever.” And a house-to-house fight, in which the infantry entered the city, was incredibly costly. “But my concern is that the Russian armed forces will not give the Ukrainians this advantage, but will use rocket and artillery fire against the civilian population with great ruthlessness.”
Markus Kaim from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) said in an interview with ntv that it currently looks as if President Putin is determined to escalate the fight. His immediate war goal was missed, namely “a political beheading of Ukraine, i.e. a replacement of the government by a government in Kyiv that is loyal to Moscow”.
Russia will not compromise
According to Kaim, the images of the long military convoy, among other things, indicated that a strategy such as that in Aleppo, Syria, could come about. “This means that large areas of civilian residential areas are being bombed – with two goals. First, to destroy the critical infrastructure: water pipes, power lines, etc. And, above all, to flee the civilian population, to drive them out deliberately, in order to then drive out these areas take,” said the political scientist.
“It’s just a terrible situation that Ukraine got into through no fault of its own,” summarized Sven Bernhard Gareis in an interview with ntv.de. There will certainly be no compromise from the Russian side. “Putin has a free hand in Ukraine. NATO will certainly not intervene.” The undisturbed convoy driving on is an obvious symbol of this. “Putin will pursue his goal of destroying Ukraine as a state, as a nation. The whole thing is taking place in the middle of Europe and we are standing by and can do practically nothing.”