The bitcoin halving, one of the notable events at the start of 2024 for cryptocurrencies, took place without a hitch. One month later, its first consequences on the famous currency and the market are being felt.
A month ago, on the night of April 20, the 840,000th block of the bitcoin blockchain was mined, and the fourth halving took place. Expected for four years by the entire crypto-currency sector, this halving of the profits collected during mining was surrounded by a particular aura: the predictions were very different from those made for previous deadlines.
May 21, 2024, one month later, what is happening? While it is generally accepted that a period of one month is not sufficient to truly see the effect of halving on the price of cryptocurrencies, this year is special. Indeed, for the first time, experts predicted, on the basis of certain factors, that this event would not necessarily cause a sharp increase in prices. Is one of the three scenarios that Numerama analyzed happening?
One month later, where is the price of bitcoin?
Halving is a notable event that gets people talking every time, not without reason: by halving the rewards granted to miners of the bitcoin blockchain, halving artificially creates scarcity. Its very nature forces speculation – and, each time, during its previous iterations, the halving has been followed by an impressive surge in cryptocurrency prices.
But the predictions for the 2024 division were different. Industry experts had anticipated three likely scenarios.
- Bitcoin rises: like previous editions, bitcoin is boosted by halving, and its price explodes.
- Bitcoin is stagnating: some experts pointed out that, at the start of 2024, more than a month before the halving, bitcoin had already reached a new record price. After this initial momentum, which was largely driven by the arrival on the market of bitcoin ETFs, observers feared that the market would run out of steam, and that a further increase would therefore be difficult to imagine.
- Bitcoin is going down: the JPMorgan bank had predicted a fall in bitcoin towards $40,000, like what happened to bitcoin cash, a derivative of classic bitcoin, after its own halving at the beginning of April.
What is the situation today? Bitcoin, which was around $60,000 just after the halving, now costs around $70,000. Although these first figures are good, it is not the significant increase that some expected. It can be noted that bitcoin oscillates between the scenario of increase and that of stagnation.
Does that mean it’s necessarily permanent?
That being said, it is important to remember that it is still early to be able to say the long-term effect of this division. In November 2012, when the first halving took place, the first effects were only seen several months later: a first peak, at 140 dollars, occurred in April 2013, almost 5 months later, and the first explosion of its price took place in November 2013, a year later.
Same thing for the second, which occurred in July 2016, but whose effects were really felt a year later, in June 2017; as for the third, which took place in May 2020, and whose increase only followed in January 2021. To have definitive confirmation of its effect on bitcoin, we must therefore still be patient.
However, we can note that the consequences of halving seem to be felt earlier and earlier. Furthermore, the very particular profile of this 4th halving could give rise to particular consequences, different from those that we have known for the others.
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