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OPEC, unlike the IEA, lowers its demand forecast in 2022











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by Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC on Thursday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022 for the third time since April, citing the economic impact of war in Ukraine, inflation and measures against COVID-19.

The cartel’s view contrasts with that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which announced earlier in the day an increase in its demand forecast for this year.

In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimates that oil demand will increase by 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), 260,000 bpd less than the previous forecast.

It left its growth projection for 2023 unchanged at 2.7 million bpd.

Oil consumption, which collapsed with the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded and is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year. However, high crude prices and the health crisis in China have undermined growth prospects for 2022.

“Global oil market fundamentals continued their strong recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels for most of the first half, although signs of slowing global economic growth and oil demand emerged. “, said the organization in its report.

OPEC lowered its economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.1% for this year and to 3.1% also for 2023.

“This is still solid growth, however, when compared to pre-pandemic growth levels, which were only marginally above average and not burdened by potentially impacting current issues. “, said OPEC. “Therefore, it is evident that significant downside risk prevails.”

(Alex Lawler report, French version Laetitia Volga, edited by Kate Entringer)










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