by Alex Lawler and Dmitry Zhdannikov
VIENNA, July 6 (Reuters) – OPEC is likely to stick to its oil demand growth forecast for next year when it releases its outlook next week, sources close to the cartel said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to expect lower growth in 2024 than in 2023 of 2.35 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.4%.
This rate would remain well above the annual average of the last decade, with the exception of the COVID years, and higher than the forecasts of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which predicts a significant slowdown in demand growth. in 2024, at 860,000 bpd.
OPEC and the IEA have clashed on several occasions in recent years, the first accusing the second of forecasts deemed irresponsible and therefore subject to revisions.
Demand growth is an indication of likely market strength and informs production decisions by OPEC and its allies. In June, OPEC+ extended its supply restrictions until 2024 to support the market, as fears of weakening demand weighed on prices.
Three OPEC sources said while demand growth was likely to weaken, the slowdown would not be as deep as feared by the IEA.
“The increase in oil demand in 2024 can be expected to be much lower than in 2023,” said one of the sources within the cartel, adding that it could be between 1 .5 and 1.7 million bpd.
OPEC is expected to publish its first forecasts for 2024 in its July 13 monthly report.
At a conference this week, senior officials from OPEC countries, such as Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, expressed optimism about the demand outlook, despite economic headwinds.
“Asia is growing. In China alone, between 2019 and 2023, growth will be three million bpd and in India one million bpd,” he said.
Oil demand forecasters often have to make significant revisions due to changing economic prospects and geopolitical uncertainties, which this year included China’s lifting of coronavirus containment measures and rate hikes. of interest. (With Ahmad Ghaddar, French version Laetitia Volga, editing by Kate Entringer)
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