HASlert red on orange! Citrus juice manufacturers are sounding the foghorn. The price of fruit juice is, it is true, experiencing a surge on the markets. To the point of reaching, in May, a new level in its crazy flight. The futures contract for frozen concentrated orange juice exceeded the price of 4.50 dollars (4.20 euros) per pound, shattering its all-time record. Orange juice, gold at the bar…
Compared to its level in February 2020, its price has quintupled. At that time, the Covid-19 pandemic was sweeping the planet. Americans, who until then had increasingly shunned orange juice, considered naturally too rich in sugars, rushed to consume it, to gorge themselves on vitamin C. A reversal of trend, which fueled the request.
However, the orchards of Florida, once the flagship of this production, are lacking juice. For around twenty years, they have suffered the terrible attack of the “yellow dragon”. When this bacterial disease affects the tree, it dies, and its fruits, often falling before maturity, are unfit for consumption. So far, the antidote has not been found. As a result, this state only produced, during the last harvest, 17.8 million crates weighing around 40 kilograms.
An unprecedented situation
Even more serious, the yellow dragon is beginning to rage in Brazil, the world’s leading producer of oranges for juice. In addition, this country has suffered unfavorable weather episodes. The state of Sao Paulo, in particular, was the victim of drought, further limiting the promise of orchards. Experts estimate that the harvest, already bad in 2023, would be even worse this year, with a forecast of 232 million crates, down 24% over one year.
These estimates at the start of the campaign, when everyone expected a rebound after a dark year, increased the pressure on orange. The specter of shortages is being raised by investors and speculation is causing the frozen concentrated juice market to soar. The orange therefore has a bitter taste for fruit juice manufacturers.
Emmanuel Vasseneix, president and CEO of the Laiterie de Saint-Denis-de-l’Hôtel and president of the National Interprofessional Fruit Juice Union, gives some milestones in the evolution of the bill: “A ton of pure orange juice was trading at $500 in 2021, then at $900 in 2023, and now at $1,200, even $1,300. » And consider this unprecedented situation.
An increase of 45 to 50 cents per liter has already been transferred to supermarket shelves. A second similar increase seems inevitable. Except that it remains across the throat of the customer who drinks in smaller sips. “ Usually we sell 7 million liters of pure juice per month, but since April the rate has fallen to 5.5 million liters », worries Mr. Vasseneix. Some brands are opting for a smaller format, such as Innocent (Coca-Cola) with its 90 centiliter bottles. Or favor fruits like tangerines, pineapples or apples, or even focus on fruit drinks. Or how to put water in your juice to dilute the bill.