(CercleFinance.com) – The stock remains stable despite rumors by the group of the takeover of Brookfield’s 45% stake in TDF.
The Canadian group Brookfield plans to sell its 45% stake in TDF according to Les Echos (19,200 telecom sites). Oddo sees Orange as a serious candidate to get closer to TDF. The daily suggests other possible buyers (Vodafone, Vantage Towers, American Tower, Blackstone)’.
The expected valuation would be 8 to 10 billion euros, or between 19 and 24 times TDF’s 2021 EBITDA (412.2 million) according to Les Echos.
‘ 1/ Orange, which owns 18,500 towers in France through its subsidiary Totem, is TDF’s best possible partner (19,229 sites, including 7,800 of its own) 2/ the operation would crystallize value for Totem (towers at 22x EBITDAaL vs. Orange < 5x); 3/ expanding the scope of Totem would allow Orange to then aim for an even broader merger operation in the medium term,' indicates the analysis office.
Oddo estimates that Orange could propose a buyout of Brookfield’s stake before or after the merger between its subsidiary Totem and TDF (respective company values of 8.0 billion euros and 9.7 billion euros).
‘ Orange could propose to Vodafone a merger of equals between Totem-TDF and Vantage Towers (enterprise value 17 MdE), or even in favor of Totem-TDF thanks to the valuation of TDF/Totem synergies (~1.5 MdE) ‘ adds the analyst.
Oddo believes that the market now seems more interested in upgrading telecoms since the start of the year, unlike in 2020-21.