The Hungarian government lets the people vote on the punitive measures against Russia. Orban’s aim is to put pressure on the EU in negotiations about financial resources.
Orban sees “Brussels bureaucrats” as responsible for the sanctions, which he himself agreed to.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is once again living up to his reputation as the Kremlin’s Trojan horse in the EU. For weeks he has been railing against the sanctions imposed in the energy sector because of the attack on Ukraine. Although he only recently agreed to an extension, he is now calling for it to be lifted in full by the end of the year. On Monday, the prime minister claimed at the opening of parliament that inflation and high energy prices were solely a consequence of the punitive measures – these made Europeans poorer and did little to harm Russia.
That Hungary, even before the outbreak of war, doubling of the rate of inflation compared to the previous year and continues to purchase oil and natural gas from Russia without restrictions, Orban studiously kept silent. Instead, he attacked the “Brussels bureaucrats and European elites” who had decided on the sanctions on their own. It is now time to ask the public for their opinion. Hungary will be the first country in Europe to do this with another “national consultation”.
Election propaganda paid for with tax money
We already know this illusion of direct democracy. Orban has had eleven such votes held in recent years, for example under the name “Stop Brussels!” about apparent EU dictates or on migration policy and the alleged “plan” of billionaire George Soros to smuggle a million migrants to Europe every year. The millions of questionnaires sent to households with all sorts of leading questions are anything but a neutral opinion survey, the implementation and evaluation are completely non-transparent. With those provided by the Hungarian Constitution instruments of direct democracy the “national consultations” have nothing to do with it, it’s primarily about Fidesz election propaganda paid for with taxpayers’ money.
The result of the vote on the Russia sanctions is correspondingly predictable: it will be in favor of the government and the abolition of the measures with figures that appear Soviet. Now this could be dismissed as bad populism and ignored if the European Council didn’t have to extend the sanctions again in March – also with Hungary’s vote.
Orban will then agree again, as he has always done in the past. But he will demand concessions, as always, and the “will of the people” determined in his survey will drive up the price.
For example, to 7.5 billion euros. This sum from the EU budget is not to be paid out to Hungary for the time being, as the Commission announced ten days ago. Because of the rampant corruption in the country, the funds are not adequately protected against misuse.
Brussels is thus applying the new rule of law mechanism for the first time – largely under pressure from the EU Parliament, which no longer wants to accept that Hungary is pouring more resources into the pockets of minions than in any other member state. The European anti-fraud authority Olaf identified for the budget period from 2015 to 2019 misappropriated funds amounting to 4 percent of all aid granted to Hungarywhich is ten times more than the European average.
Orban urgently needs the EU funds
Olaf’s recommendations have not had any consequences so far. Criminal prosecution and the judiciary only act independently to a limited extent in Hungary; Orban’s power is largely based on supporting this clientele system. At the same time, the government urgently needs the EU funds in view of the economic crisis, the tumbling forint and the expensive campaign gifts.
Under this pressure, Budapest has negotiated a package of measures to combat corruption with Brussels. On paper, the reforms sound reasonable. For example, an independent “integrity authority” is to be created to take action against fraud, conflicts of interest and other irregularities in connection with the use of EU funds.
How serious Orban really is about it remains open for the time being. In the past twelve years he has often fobbed off Brussels with cosmetic reforms that have done nothing to change the denounced dismantling of democracy. The implementation of the proposed measures is therefore crucial. Distrust is not only appropriate, it is imperative.
The EU Commissioner responsible, Johannes Hahn, admitted that. Nevertheless, he spoke of a “significant step” in the right direction, even of a “game changer”. That is premature at this point. Orban is a brilliant tactician and for far too long has taken advantage of the EU’s narrow scope for action as long as Poland protects Hungary from serious sanctions. With the rule of law mechanism, however, the Union has received a new means of exerting pressure – provided it is really willing to use it. So it is a good thing for Orban that Brussels needs his support with the Russia sanctions. That might be blackmail, but it’s worked brilliantly for the past few years.