Orban declares a state of emergency in Hungary

Hungary’s government declared another state of emergency on Wednesday night because of the Ukraine war. In a Facebook video, Prime Minister Viktor Orban justified the step by saying that the conflict in the neighboring country is a constant threat “to our physical security, to the energy supply and the financial security of families and the economy”. Therefore, the government must be able to react quickly to protect the population.

Orban said the war and EU sanctions had “resulted in an enormous economic mess and drastic price hikes”. On Wednesday evening, he clarified that with the new derogation, the government will force banks, supermarket chains, the energy industry and other companies to pay “a large part of their additional profits” into two state funds, which they have made as a result of the difficult current situation. The additional money from this extra tax should go to the army and subsidizing energy prices. He initially left it open how high it should be.

Foreign policy tightrope walk

In fact, inflation peaked at 9.5 percent in April the highest level since 2001. However, inflation has been rising sharply since last year, which, among other things, prompted Budapest to introduce price caps for fuel in late autumn. The Ukraine war has added to the trend, and Orban fears this is just the beginning of an even more massive crisis.

Since Hungary has increased its dependence on Russian energy under the politician who has been in power without interruption since 2010, Budapest is particularly concerned about the consequences of the economic war between the EU and Russia. Orban therefore only supports sanctions outside the energy sector. He has been blocking an oil embargo for weeks, and despite great pressure and financial promises from Brussels, no change of course is in sight.

Orban’s Ukraine policy is walking an increasingly fine line, with the aim of not angering either Moscow or the NATO allies in the long term. Not just in his constituencybut also in intellectual circles close to Fidesz there is considerable sympathy for Russia mixed with dislike for the USA. The promise to keep Hungary out of the conflict was a key factor in Orban’s recent election victory in early April.

For the same reason, his government has always said it would limit aid to Ukraine to the humanitarian sphere and prevent arms shipments through Hungarian territory or through its airspace. According to the Atlatszo website but Budapest has tacitly admitted such in at least fifty cases. Hungary also has the stationing of a NATO combat group on its own territory approved in March.

More domestic political powers

With the new emergency regulation, this is only possible fifth Orban government sworn in on Tuesday additional domestic policy options. The parliament, in which the governing party Fidesz has a two-thirds majority, also created the legal basis by amending the constitution on Tuesday.

Budapest is now using the war in the neighboring country as the third reason to be able to govern in a state of emergency. The first two emergency regulations were issued because of the refugee crisis of 2015 and then for the pandemic. The latter, which has been in force since spring 2020 in a slightly modified form, is scheduled to expire at the end of May. The draft submitted by the Minister of Justice at the beginning of the month provides that the government can make regulations bypassing Parliament that selectively override the usual legal framework and civil rights.

The need for additional competences in the draft was initially justified with the handling of the refugee crisis as a result of the Ukraine war. However, the Hungarian Helsinki Committee points this outthat the necessary measures could also be enacted as part of the normal legislative process. While the draft provides for a regular review of the constitutionality of the additional powers, these are only very vaguely defined in terms of content. This also explains why the focus could now effortlessly be directed towards overcoming the economic crisis.

The critics recall the experiences with the Corona emergency laws. These did not lead directly to a dictatorial regime, as was sometimes alarmistically reported at the time. On their basis, however, the government passed a number of regulations, which were only marginally related to the fight against the pandemic. For example, Budapest decided to restrict the transparency obligation of public institutions, give the military more influence over private companies and even ban gender reassignments. The suspicion therefore arises that the perpetuation of the state of emergency in Hungary is also motivated by the fact that the government wants to gain maximum freedom of action – where it deems it necessary domestically.