Yemen has long been a civil war country that has received little attention worldwide. But the Houthi militia’s attacks on international shipping are bringing the country into focus. During the night the USA and other countries attacked the Houthis. But they are experienced in fighting against a superior force.
As of tonight, US President Joe Biden became the third US president in a row to order a military attack on the territory of Yemen. In addition to Islamist groups such as the local wing of al-Qaeda, these military operations were directed against the Houthi rebels, including last night. Supported by Britain, the Netherlands, Canada and Bahrain, the attacks were in response to repeated shelling and attempted and actual hijackings of cargo ships off the coast of Yemen – a bottleneck in global trade between Europe and Asia. However, a look at the history, capabilities and goals of the Houthis shows that the group is unlikely to be dissuaded from continuing to attack international cargo ships by the one-off use of armed force.
Where do the Houthis come from?
The Houthis were formed around a tribal family of the same name from the highlands in northwestern Yemen, whose members hold most of the important positions in the organization. The Houthis, like around 30 percent of Yemenis, are Shiites. More precisely: they are Zaidis, a branch of Shiite Islam. They ruled northern Yemen until the 1960s, but after their fall they were marginalized by the Sunni majority. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the Houthi clan, led by Hussein Badreddin al-Huthi, founded a religious renewal movement for the Zaidis. They also wanted to counter the growing influence of Sunni Saudi Arabia in Yemen. The Houthis became radicalized in the years following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. In addition to their rigorous interpretation of Islam, there was an anti-Western agenda that put them in opposition to the then US-friendly government in the capital Sanaa. The hatred of Israel also stems from this rejection of the West. In the Houthis’ worldview, the Jewish state is a Western colonial structure on Arab soil.
When did the Houthis become a power factor?
After three decades of authoritarian rule and repeated civil wars, President Ali Abdullah Saleh came under pressure from mass protests in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring. The Houthis, however, sided with Salih, who nevertheless fell in 2013. This led to an uprising by the Houthis, who finally conquered the city of Sanaa at the beginning of 2015 and took power in the country. But because Riyadh did not want to accept a government supported by Tehran on its own southern flank in the struggle with Shiite Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervened in the conflict. By 2022, the Yemeni forces supported by Saudi Arabia were able to push back the Houthis, but they still controlled large areas in northwest Yemen. Tens of thousands of people were killed in the war. The country’s economy has collapsed. Around 80 percent of the people are dependent on international aid, and the country is constantly at risk of famine.
What role does the war between Israel and Hamas play?
The Houthis said on October 31 that they had intervened in the war between Israel and Hamas. Drones and rockets were fired at Israel. The Houthis justified their attacks on Israel and on ships belonging to Israel or calling at its ports with Israeli human rights violations in the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. “God is great, death to America, death to Israel, cursed be the Jews, victory for Islam,” is the Houthis’ battle cry. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Assad regime in Syria, they belong to the self-declared “Axis of Resistance,” an alliance of Arab opponents of Israel under the aegis of Iran. After the British and US attacks on the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah published solidarity addresses condemning the attacks.
Why are the Houthi attacks so dangerous?
Yemen occupies a strategically important location on the Arabian Peninsula. In the west, the country has a coast on the Red Sea, at the northern end of which lies the Suez Canal in Egypt and leads to the Mediterranean. Further south, Yemen borders the Bab al-Mandab between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. This strait connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden further to the east, which flows into the Indian Ocean. This means that important shipping routes between Africa and Asia and via the Suez Canal to and from Europe are located off the coast of Yemen. Because of the wave of Houthi attacks on container ships, several shipping companies are now avoiding sailing through the strait.
The necessary detours via the Horn of Africa lead to weeks of delays and thus to the interruption of supply chains and disruptions to industrial production in Europe. During their ship hijackings and hijacking attempts, the Houthi militiamen clearly tried to avoid violence and, if possible, not to injure or even kill civilian crew members. A Houthi spokesman said on Friday there was “no threat to international shipping in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.” The Houthis continued to fight “Israeli ships or those entering the ports of occupied Palestine.”
How strong is the militia?
Thanks to Iran, the Houthis have massively rearmed in recent years; the militia is said to number 180,000 to 200,000 men. The British “Guardian”, on the other hand, writes of only 20,000 fighters in the Houthi ranks. According to the Dutch investigative portal “Oryx“Their weapons portfolio ranges from ballistic missiles to cruise missiles and drones to anti-ship missiles. According to experts, their Tofan, Borkan and Kuds missiles are modeled on Iranian weapons and can reach targets at a distance of up to 2000 kilometers. Repeatedly Saudi Arabia recently had to use its own air defense capabilities to repel Houthi attacks on Israel. Saudi Arabia was repeatedly hit by Houthi missiles. The militia is trained in their use.
“The fighters in flip-flops and tribal costumes have become a formidable force,” says Farea al-Muslimi of the London research institute Chatham House in one interview with Swiss Radio and Television (SRF). Added to this is their experience in dealing with air attacks from a technologically superior force. “Everything worth attacking has been attacked by the Saudi coalition in the last nine years,” Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, told Arabic news channel Al-Jazeera. Nevertheless, the Houthis could only be pushed back, not defeated. The Houthis operate with a mobile infrastructure that does not provide easy targets for air strikes, al-Iryani said. The militia does not feel strategically uncomfortable in a war with the USA.
What do the Houthis want to achieve?
“Formal recognition could be the most important thing for the Houthis,” Raiman al-Hamdani, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the news channel Al Jazeera. “The group’s main concern is to further consolidate power over the country.” In this sense, a confrontation on equal terms with the USA may be in the Houthis’ strategic interest. They have been negotiating with Saudi Arabia about pacifying Yemen since 2022 and could even seek a compromise with Riyadh in the long term. The US government had also admitted when it took office that it could not get past the Houthis: In February 2022, Joe Biden removed the Houthis from the list of foreign terrorist organizations that his predecessor Donald Trump had placed them on. Biden’s move was intended not only to facilitate humanitarian aid to the regions controlled by the Houthis, but also to fundamentally enable direct negotiations. The US government is not allowed to negotiate with terrorists.
Does Iran control the Houthis?
It is undisputed that the Shiite regime in Tehran is a significant supporter of the Houthis. A Foreign Office spokesman said on Wednesday: “It is true that the Houthis have been supported by Iran for years and that the recent attacks would not have been possible without Iran’s long-standing support for the Houthis.” Similar to the Iranian-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah, it is unclear to what extent Tehran can control the Houthis. The Houthis are “contrary to Saudi perceptions, not an actor controlled from Iran; they do accept advice from Iran, but have also repeatedly acted contrary to Iranian recommendations,” wrote Marie-Christine Heinze from the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient ( CARPO) in one Contribution to Welthungerhilfe. Iran condemned the British and US attacks as a clear violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and a violation of international law.
What is Saudi Arabia’s stance?
“It is the case that Saudi Arabia has credibly moved away from a military solution,” the Foreign Office said about Riyadh’s role. The sheikdom does not want to give up the negotiations that have begun on a political solution to the conflict, despite the Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the region. The country had asked the USA for restraint in December and has now warned of an escalation of violence. Riyadh appears to have no interest in renewed conflict after the Houthis repeatedly succeeded in attacking and destroying Saudi infrastructure, particularly oil industry facilities, during the war. Saudi Arabia was therefore not involved in the recent attacks on the Houthis. Regional expert Raiman al-Hamdani even believes that the Houthis could move closer to Saudi Arabia and break away from Iran. Even if Shiite Iran is a natural partner, an alliance with Saudi Arabia would be more in the interest of the Houthis in order to permanently rule Yemen or at least large parts of the country.