The film year always comes to a climax very late but reliably: on February 9th, it is decided who shaped the past year in Hollywood. The Oscar ceremony is the cultural indicator and the highlight not only for the film industry and its fans. The whole world looks at the event – which has been heavily influenced by politics in recent years – at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, when it says again: "And the Oscar goes to …" But who are the favorites for a gold boy and why?
Best movie
"1917"; "The Irishman"; "Jojo Rabbit", "Joker"; "Le Mans 66 – Against Every Chance"; "Little Women"; "Marriage Story"; "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood"; "Parasite".
In the "supreme discipline" Netflix is represented with two films, "The Irishman" by Martin Scorsese (77) and Noah Baumbach (50) "Marriage Story". The divorce drama scores with convincing actors and an excellent script. But whether the Academy will award the most important price to the streaming service, which has been proclaimed the "enemy of classic cinema"?
"Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood" by Quentin Tarantino (56) won the Golden Globe as "Best Film – Comedy / Musical", the impressive war drama "1917" by Sam Mendes (54) won "Best Film – Drama ". "1917" is considered a secret favorite. Or does "Joker" prevail, which won a total of eleven nominations? With "Parasite" an international contribution could be honored as the best film, but Bong Joon-ho (50) is more likely to be an outsider. It's more like: Hollywood cinema vs. Netflix production.
Best director
Martin Scorsese – "The Irishman"; Todd Phillips – "Joker"; Sam Mendes – "1917"; Quentin Tarantino – "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood"; Bong Joon Ho – "Parasite".
The "Best Director" could be a tight box. Martin Scorsese has "only" received a director's Oscar ("The Departed"). On the other hand, the award would now be his specialty for "The Irishman", a mafia epic. Oscar winner Sam Mendes ("American Beauty") has very good cards for his second award with "1917": The story of the war drama is emotional and it captivates the viewer in the gripping "one-shot movie". And then there was Quentin Tarantino with zero director's Oscars so far, who could still do it or just because of it. "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood" is his personal homage to Hollywood and it would be his "turn" now.
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas – "Sorrow and Glory"; Leonardo DiCaprio – "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood"; Adam Driver – "Marriage Story"; Joaquin Phoenix – "Joker"; Jonathan Pryce – "The Two Popes".
Joaquin Phoenix (45) should receive his first Oscar – his "Joker" performance is unprecedented, although he would have deserved it for other films ("Walk The Line", "The Master"). He dominated the award season. The other nominees all have more of an outsider chance. It would be a real surprise if Phoenix went out empty handed.
Even if Adam Driver (36) convinces with his unexcited performance in "Marriage Story". It is surprising that Jonathan Pryce (72) preferred "The Two Popes" as the main actor over Anthony Hopkins (82), who is nominated as a supporting actor. Actually, both should have belonged to the main category.
Best main actress
Cynthia Erivo – "Harriet – The Road to Freedom"; Scarlett Johansson – "Marriage Story"; Saoirse Ronan – "Little Women"; Charlize Theron – "Bombshell – The End of Silence"; Renée Zellweger – "Judy".
Renée Zellweger (50) is the clear favorite for the Oscar for "Judy". Like Phoenix, she has dusted all awards so far. In the biopic she mimics Hollywood icon Judy Garland (1922-1969) and such stories are among the favorites of the Academy. Scarlett Johansson (35), who received her first and second Oscar nominations in 2020, shines in "Marriage Story", but her chances of winning are rather slim.
If the Academy wants to set an example when it comes to the MeToo debate, Charlize Theron (44) could cheer surprisingly. If you want to avoid the "#OscarssoWhite" accusation, Cynthia Erivo (33) could be awarded for "Harriet – The Road to Freedom".
Best supporting actor
Tom Hanks – "The Wonderful Mr. Rogers"; Anthony Hopkins – "The Two Popes"; Al Pacino – "The Irishman"; Joe Pesci – "The Irishman"; Brad Pitt – "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood".
It could actually result in the first acting Oscar for Brad Pitt (56). In his previous acceptance speeches, he has made some jokes about his performance in "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood" as well as about his private life and single status. At BAFTAs, he had co-star Margot Robbie (29) deal a swipe to the Royals. You want to know what he does on stage if he wins an Oscar.
However, Pitt kills four real Hollywood heavyweights: Anthony Hopkins, the "Irishman" actors Al Pacino (79) and Joe Pesci (76) and Tom Hanks (63). Hanks, who plays the title character in "The Wonderful Mr. Rogers", appears to be misplaced in the supporting actor category. Should Pitt lose out, it would be a real surprise.
The best supporting actress
Kathy Bates – "The Richard Jewell Case"; Laura Dern – "Marriage Story"; Margot Robbie – "Bombshell – The End of Silence"; Scarlett Johansson – "Jojo Rabbit"; Florence Pugh – "Little Women".
Laura Dern (52) chooses her roles wisely. She is the supposedly clear favorite as a clever lawyer in "Marriage Story". Dern's time for an Oscar seems to have come. The young Briton Florence Pugh (24), who stands out in "Little Women" from the remarkable cast, may have outsider chances. As a charming and selfish nestling, her Amy is the most striking of the four March sisters. With or without an Oscar, it may just be the beginning for Florence Pugh.
Best original screenplay
Noah Baumbach – "Marriage Story"; Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won – "Parasite"; Rian Johnson – "Knives Out – Murder Is A Family Matter"; Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns – "1917"; Quentin Tarantino – "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood".
Noah Baumbach was highly praised for his screenplay for "Marriage Story", it scores with pointed dialogues, elaborate characters, no contrived scenes or lengthy action. Last but not least, the two leading actors Johansson and Driver shine thanks to Baumbach's template. Quentin Tarantino's "Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood" could make him disputed, he already won the Golden Globe for "Best Screenplay". It would be his third screenwriting Oscar after "Pulp Fiction" (1994) and "Django Unchained" (2012).
Perhaps Sam Mendes will also prevail with "1917", or Rian Johnson (46, "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"), who has achieved a real surprise success with the crime comedy "Knives Out".
Best adapted script
Greta Gerwig – "Little Women"; Anthony McCarten – "The Two Popes", Todd Phillips and Scott Silver – "Joker", Taika Waititi – "Jojo Rabbit", Steven Zaillian – "The Irishman".
No director's nomination for Greta Gerwig (36), but the Oscar chance with "Little Women" in the "Best Adapted Screenplay" category. Gerwig turns the novel from 1868 into a witty and clever narrative with excitingly interpreted March sisters – a plea for liberal feminism. Greta Gerwig contests her first Oscar for about "The Irishman" and screenwriter Steven Zaillian (67, "Schindler's List"), who used Charles Brandt's novel "I Heard You Paint Houses". Zaillian is an author heavyweight who won the category as early as 1994 for "Schindler's List" (1993).
Added to this is Taika Waititi (44) with his screenplay for "Jojo Rabbit", based on the novel "Caging Skies" from 2008. The New Zealander has put a lot of courage and wit into his weird Hitler satire, thereby creating a curious interpretation that goes with her hilarious characters both provoked and touched.