“Our weapons are designed to protect the border, not to wage war,” says the 32-year-old captain in blue camouflage uniforms aboard the boat as it sails off Mariupol, a port and industrial city in eastern Ukraine. “But if they attack, we will defend ourselves. »
Russia launched new large-scale naval maneuvers in the nearby Black Sea on Saturday, with more than 30 ships setting sail from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.
The former Ukrainian naval force, stationed almost entirely in Sevastopol, Crimea, all but disappeared when Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. According to military analysts, Ukraine now has only one warship and two a dozen patrol boats.
“The presence of Russian patrol boats is increasing. We often see them on the edge of our territory, explains Olexander Surkov. They stir up tensions. »
“Prepare for the worst”
Mariupol sits very close to the frontline separating territory under Ukrainian government control from that controlled by Russian-backed pro-Russian separatists.
Coastguards patrolling off the city doubt they will be able to repel a Russian assault that might accompany a land invasion.
The Russian ships that entered this region of the Black Sea “have weapons that can be used both on land and at sea. They have missiles,” says Coast Guard Captain Igor Chernov.
“We are counting on a diplomatic solution to the crisis, but we have to prepare for the worst,” underlines Olexander Surkov.
For Nick Childs, a naval force expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, an assault on Ukraine would not be easy to pull off, even for Russia. “A lot of attention has been paid to the movements of Russian amphibious ships in the Black Sea to reinforce the forces already there,” he said. However, such operations would present dangers and Ukraine has some coastal defense capabilities, including anti-ship missiles in development. »
“It would be a very complicated operation for Russia,” says Mykola Beleskov, Ukrainian analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies. If the operation is limited to sending marines, we will survive. »
According to Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, the Kremlin has been preparing for such an attack for nearly a year.