Parallel to the 1970s – Rising fuel prices evoke memories of the oil crisis – News
The Russian war in Ukraine is also driving up energy costs in Switzerland. The Greens are already calling for car-free Sundays like during the oil crisis in the 1970s. At that time, the Arab oil states turned off the tap and reduced supply. They wanted to force the West to abandon its pro-Israel position after the Yom Kippur War between Israel and its Arab neighbors.
But 2022 is not 1973: there are parallels, but there are also clear differences between then and now, as Andreas Goldthau, an energy expert at the University of Potsdam, explains.
Andrew Goldthau
energy expert
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Andreas Goldthau works at the Institute for Transformational Sustainability Research IASS in Potsdam. The professor of energy and sustainability leads the ISIGET project, which researches the systemic effects of the global energy transition for countries in the Global South.
At that time, the high oil prices drove inflation up to 12 percent and Switzerland into a deep recession. And there was also a year-long phase of economic stagnation worldwide.
When the cars stood still on Sundays
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A police patrol checks a car on one of the car-free Sundays in November/December 1973 in Switzerland.
Archive/Keystone
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In 1973, at the height of the oil crisis, a number of car-free Sundays were introduced in Switzerland, giving these passers-by the rare sight of an empty autobahn. Recorded in Basel.
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Cyclists enjoy the empty streets. Recorded on November 21, 1973 in front of the barracks in Zurich.
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Lots of unused lanes on the Autobahn: In November 1973, the Federal Council ordered three car-free Sundays and a speed limit of 100 km/h on the Autobahn in order to reduce oil consumption. It was hoped that this would result in a fuel saving of 10 percent. Recorded in Zurich 1973.
Archive/Keystone
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Taxis are queuing in front of Zurich main station, in the background a bus of the Zurich public transport company, photographed in November 1973. Taxis and public transport were allowed to continue operating.
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Streets and intersections in the city of Zurich, where convoys of vehicles used to be jammed, seemed deserted. Recorded November 25, 1973.
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Car-free Sundays were not only found in Switzerland: In the picture, a photographer from the AP agency rides through downtown Rome on a pony. Recorded December 2, 1973.
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And in Germany, too, the cars stood still. In the picture: cyclists on the autobahn near Düsseldorf on November 25, 1973.
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Gas station in Perkasie, Pennsylvania on June 1, 1973.
Archive/Keystone/AP
But the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also had a much larger market share at the time, explains Andreas Goldthau. At the time, it produced 55 percent of the world’s oil needs. Russia, on the other hand, supplies 5 percent to the oil market today. Should Russia fail effectively due to sanctions or a delivery stop, the effects on the global economy would probably be less than in the 1970s, according to the expert.
Five million barrels, that’s not easy to replace.
Nevertheless, today several oil-producing states would have to work together to replace the daily export volume of five million barrels of Russian oil. “Five million barrels, that’s not so easy to replace,” Goldthau points out. “Of course, this fact will have a strong impact on the price of oil.” According to the professor of energy and sustainability, the price of oil could well rise further from USD 140 per barrel.
Federal Councilor Brugger: “Save in time, so you have in need”
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Legend:
Federal Councilor Ernst Brugger, 1976.
Archive/Keystone
In the 1970s, the OPEC blockade suddenly made people aware of how dependent they were on oil from Arab countries. At the time, Federal Councilor Ernst Brugger called for oil consumption to be reduced by 20 percent: “We believe that the speed limit and the Sunday driving ban can save around 10 percent. For the other 10 percent, we appeal to the common sense of the population: help,” he said, adding: “Save in time, so you have in need.”
Although the measures worked, the high oil prices drove inflation up to 12 percent and Switzerland into a deep recession. And there was also a year-long phase of economic stagnation worldwide.
But a higher oil price – as we can see in retrospect – does not only have negative consequences: after 1973 people began to think more about the use of the precious substance. “Energy efficiency has been greatly increased,” says Andreas Goldthau. “Today, compared to 1973, we produce the same domestic product with about half the oil.”
And another point has changed: Today it is clear that the fossil age is coming to an end. Even before the Ukraine war, Switzerland provided 16 billion Swiss francs in subsidies for the next few years. The current debates are likely to accelerate the farewell to oil. “If not now, then when,” emphasizes Goldthau.
