THE TREND
(Boursier.com) — The CAC 40 should embark on a small rebound likely to take it past 6,900 points again this morning, while quarterly publications continue at a frantic pace as has been the case since Wednesday. Since the close yesterday, Amundi, Vinci, Rémy Cointreau, Elis, Safran, Valeo, Ubisoft, Saint-Gobain, Vinci, AirFrance-KLM have, among others, published contrasting figures and the sorting will take place from 9 a.m. Like the start of yesterday’s and Wednesday’s sessions, there are expected to be many differences!
In addition to the publication of results which are continuing, the main event of the day will be the publication at 2:30 p.m. of the PCE inflation index in the United States. This measure of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve will be important in determining the future trajectory of rates across the Atlantic as the American economy was stronger than expected in the third quarter. The Fed will make its next monetary policy decision on November 1. Yesterday, the status quo of the European Central Bank was accompanied by a relatively firm speech from Christine Lagarde.
WALL STREET
The American rating remained under pressure on Thursday, following the purge of the day before marked above all by a fall of 2.4% in the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 dropped another 1.18% to 4,137 pts, while the Dow Jones fell 0.76% to 32,784 pts. The Nasdaq lost again 1.76% to 12,595 pts.
ECO AND CURRENCIES
France :
– Consumer confidence. (08:45)
UNITED STATES :
– Final automobile sales for the month of September (BEA).)
– Household income and expenditure. (2:30 p.m.)
– Final US consumer sentiment index measured by the University of Michigan. (4:00 p.m.)
Europe:
– Preliminary Spanish GDP for the third quarter. (09:00)
– Italian consumer and business confidence indices. (10:00 a.m.)
The euro/dollar parity reached $1.0558 this morning. A barrel of Brent is trading at $89.41. An ounce of gold sells for $1,987.
VALUES TO FOLLOW
Remy Cointreau : During the first half of 2023-24, the group achieved a turnover of 636.7 million euros, down -22.2% organically (i.e. +20.9% compared to the 1st half 2019-20). On a reported basis, revenue fell -26.6%, including a negative currency effect of -4.4%, mainly linked to the evolution of the Chinese renminbi and the US dollar. The deterioration of market conditions, mainly in the United States, has led Rémy Cointreau to adjust its 2023-24 annual objectives and now forecasts: a decline in turnover of between -15% and -20% on an organic basis (compared to stable previously ) and a controlled decline in the organic current operating margin (compared to stable previously) thanks to the implementation of a major cost reduction plan. Finally, taking into account the evolution of the geographic mix and the deterioration of the renminbi, the Group anticipates an unfavorable effect of the exchange rate for the year: on turnover: between -50MEUR and -60MEUR and on Current Operating Income: between -10MEUR and -15MEUR.
Sanofi publishes a net turnover of 11,964 ME for Q3 (+3.2% at CER). Specialty Medicine sales increased by 13.5%, driven by Dupixent (+32.8%, to 2,847 million euros) and ALTUVIIIO and offset the impact of Aubagio generics in the United States. Sales of Vaccines were stable (-0.6%), supported by the success of the launch of Beyfortus which offset the decline in flu vaccines. Sales of strategic General Medicine products were up 3.1%. Sales of non-strategic products are down, mainly due to Lantus (-32.9%, to 343 million euros). Consumer Health sales were up 4.6%, supported by the Digestive Health and Allergy categories. The EPS of the activities is 2.55 euros, down 11.5% based on published data and 2.1% at CER, including the loss of exclusivity of Aubagio. IFRS EPS is 2.01 euros (up 21.1%).
Amundi publishes assets under management up 4.1% year-on-year at the end of September, helped by sustained demand for risk-adverse products in a context of persistent uncertainty on the financial markets. Individual investors and institutional investors have in fact recently favored security by turning away from risky assets such as stocks and turning to cash funds, structured products and certain ETFs. Amundi’s adjusted net profit reached 290 million euros in the third quarter, up 3% year-on-year, a result in line with market expectations.
Saffron revised upwards its forecast for annual turnover for its services activities, to 30%-32% against 25%-29%, after an increase of 38% in dollars during the first 9 months of the year . On arrival, management confirms its outlook for the entire 2023 financial year, including a current operating profit target of around 3.1 billion euros.
Elis :In the 3rd quarter of 2023, turnover stood at 1.123 billion euros (1.031 billion euros in the 3rd quarter of 2022), up +9%. Organic revenue growth for the 3rd quarter remains very solid at +9.5%. It is in line with Elis’ annual growth objective. Over 9 months, turnover stood at €3.224 billion (€2.814 billion over the same period in 2022), up +14.6%.
Vinci : Over the first nine months of the year, consolidated turnover reached €50.6 billion, representing organic growth of 10.4%. Building on the solid performance achieved at the end of September 2023, the group confirms that it envisages further growth in its turnover and operating profit for the entire financial year, however on a more modest scale than that observed in 2022. Net profit should be slightly higher than its 2022 level, despite the significant increase in financial costs. The Group’s free cash flow, taking into account in particular the increase in investments in airports and in renewable energies, has been raised; it should be at least €4.5 billion in 2023. It was initially forecast at the top of the range of 4.0 to 4.5 billionE.
Xilam now anticipates a significant drop in turnover for 2024. The objective of achieving ‘Total operating income’ of 80 million euros by 2026 is suspended. “This event will, however, have no impact on the expected performance for the 2023 financial year, nor on the catalog activity which remains very dynamic.”
Fnac Darty : sales in the 3rd quarter amounted to 1.84 billion euros, stable at -0.5% in published data and -0.1% in comparable data while the market environment is still impacted by pressures inflationary. Over the first 9 months of the year, the Group’s turnover reached €5.184 billion, or -1.8% in published data and -1.5% in comparable data.
Air France-KLM presents a record operating profit of 1.3 billion euros in the third quarter, driven by summer demand, up 31% year-on-year. Turnover stood at 8.6 billion euros in the third quarter, up 8.9%, in line with the market consensus. The group’s operating margin increased by 2.9 points year-on-year, reaching 15.5%. Adjusted free operating cash flow was -0.4 billion due to a reversal in working capital requirements. Liquidity is €10.2 billion (including RCF). Net debt is reduced over the period by E1.3 billion compared to the end of 2022, resulting in a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.1x. Net profit stood at €0.9 billion, up €0.5 billion compared to last year and further supporting the restoration of the Group’s equity.
Sopra Steria : turnover amounted to 1,345.4 MEUR, total growth of 10.6% compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022. The scope effect was positive at 91.7 MEUR and the effect of variations of currencies was negative by 14.5 MEUR. At constant exchange rates and scope, turnover increased by 4.0%. The 2023 and medium-term financial objectives are confirmed. For 2023: an organic revenue growth rate of at least 6.0%; an operating margin rate slightly above 9%; and a net free cash flow of at least EUR300 million.
Ubisoft : non-IFRS operating profit amounts to 43.5 ME (-139 ME in the first half of 2022-23). Non-IFRS net income, Group share, amounts to €1.7 million, or non-IFRS earnings per share (diluted) of €0.01. They were respectively -111 ME and -0.93 euros over the first half of 2022-2023. The IFRS net profit, Group share, comes to -34.3 ME, or an IFRS profit per share (diluted) of -0.28 euro. They were respectively -190.1 ME and -1.58 euros over the first half of 2022-2023.
Saint Gobain : turnover fell by -4.9% to 36.5 billion euros at the end of September, and by -10.5% to €11.6 billion in the 3rd quarter, with a currency effect of – 2.2% over 9 months and -3.9% in the 3rd quarter. The scope effect is -2.7% over 9 months and -3.5% in the 3rd quarter.
Valeo shows growth of 4% at constant scope and exchange rates, supported by the increase in automobile production in the main regions, by the strong dynamics of the ADAS activity and the resilience of the activity of the Thermal Systems and Systems Sectors Lighting.
Seb achieved a turnover of €5,532 million over the first 9 months of the year, up 3.9% at constant exchange rates and scope and down slightly by 0.5% on a published basis). In the 3rd quarter, the group confirmed its recovery with a turnover of €1,920 million, representing an organic increase of 8.9% (+1.4% in published data). This performance is in line with the rebound trajectory envisaged by the Group at the start of the year and reinforces its ambition for organic growth of around 5% of its turnover for the whole of 2023.
LATEST SALES/RESULTS PUBLICATIONS…
SES Imagotag, Assystem, GenSight Biologics, Immersion,
THE LATEST “RECOS” FROM ANALYSTS…
Goldman Sachs remains ‘neutral’ on Eurazeo with an adjusted objective of 74 to 69 euros.
JP Morgan remains neutral on BNP Paribas but with a target which goes from 70 to 74 euros.
Deutsche Bank retains Atos with a target reduced from 7 to 6 euros.
MARKET INFO
Air France KLM agrees with Apollo Global Management for financing of €1.3 billion
Wallix concludes a Participatory Recovery Loan of 2.5 ME
IN SHORT
Quadient enters into partnership with GLS France
Michelin ceases its activity in Ardmore (United States)
STEF: proposed acquisition of the Dutch family group BAKKER Logistiek