Although I know it always happens like this, I am always impressed by our ability to seize a subject only from the moment it touches us, whether emotionally, geographically or for any other reason. The war in Ukraine is the perfect illustration of this, especially since it appears to us, to us Westerners, like the mirror of the good old fight of good against evil with an aggressor and an attacked. In these circumstances, and “thanks” to the omnipresence of social networks, everyone has an opinion by improvising themselves in turn military strategist, geopolitical consultant or specialist in international financial flows. And I’m not really doing anything else here, although taking care to avoid swinging big theories or certainties that are not there.
Moreover, it follows me all the way home, for example when number 2 (soon to be 15 years old) threw me “Dad, is this the 3and world war? Right on the day when number 1 (soon to be 17 years old) received his summons to the day of defense in the barracks of alpine hunters nearby (true), where the speakers should no longer have to rack their heads too much to initiate dialogue. This reality did not exist for number 1 and number 2 a few days ago, nor for the very vast majority of the inhabitants of the planet. What did not exist last week either, is that is how quickly Russia was banished from nations.
First there were sanctions against people, then against interests, but the machine got carried away during the weekend and carried away everything in its path. Public sanctions are accompanied by private sanctions, in the sense that dozens of large companies have frozen their activities in Russia. Some are even leaving their past investments at great expense, like BP Plc and Shell (but still not TotalEnergies). All sections of society are concerned, since sports federations have started to exclude Russian teams from international competitions, Disney and Sony will no longer release their films in the country or Russian stocks will probably be excluded from stock market indices. Even Switzerland got in tune by abandoning its age-old neutrality, while Monaco joined the European sanctions package, that is to say. I don’t know what will come of it, especially if it will strengthen the cohesion of the Russian people or if they will realize what Vladimir Putin has gotten them into.
All that to say that we are facing an unprecedented outcry which will undoubtedly have more economic repercussions than the market seems to think. And that’s not me saying it, it’s my friend Christophe Barraud, who has been one of the best forecasters in the world for years and who underlines this morning that his discussions with many business leaders show that analysts and economists underestimate the impact of this conflict on supply chains and logistics costs. In a world already unbalanced by the consequences of the pandemic, it is illusory to think that an additional and unexpected source of disorder will lighten the bill.
For investors, this means continuing to adapt by closely monitoring any pitfalls that may arise, especially those that would complicate an already messy macroeconomic equation. The stock market continues to hold up well, with relatively modest reflux yesterday in Europe and an American market which closed with moderate variations and even a slight gain on the Nasdaq. Asia-Pacific is in the green this morning, with the Japanese Nikkei 225 up 1.2% and the Australian ASX up 0.7%.
As we are the 1er March, we might as well take out the balance sheet for the past month, which is negative, but less than that of January. The MSCI World lost -2.65%, the MSCI Emerging -3.06%, the S&P500 -3.14% and the STOXX Europe 600 -3.36%. Since 1er January, the US S&P500 lost -8.33% and the European STOXX Europe 600 -7.11%.
This morning, European leading indicators are pointing in the red but US futures are looking up.
Economic highlights of the day
The final February manufacturing PMI indicators will be released throughout the day, along with the US manufacturing ISM at 4:00 p.m. This morning, China reported a manufacturing PMI back in the expansion zone in February, at 50.2 points against 49.8 points expected for the official indicator and at 50.4 against 49.1 expected for Caixin PMI.
The euro is trading at 1.12 USD. Gold is stable at 1905 USD per ounce. Oil rebounded slightly after its decline the day before, to 98.91 USD per barrel of Brent and 96.54 USD per barrel of WTI. The T-Bond shows a return of 1.85% over 10 years (+3 points). Bitcoin rebounded vigorously to $43,252.
The main changes in recommendations
- Bénéteau: Berenberg remains on the buy side with a target raised from 16 to 18 EUR.
- Bpost: Berenberg remains to be kept with a target lowered from 9 to 8.50 EUR.
- Cofinimmo: JP Morgan goes from overweight to neutral, targeting EUR 145.
- Erste: AlphaValue remains to be reduced with a target price reduced from 38.50 to 29.90 EUR.
- International Consolidated Airlines: Bernstein goes from neutral to outperformance by aiming for 200 GBp.
- ITM Power: JP Morgan goes from neutral to overweight, targeting 470 GBp.
- Ocado: Berenberg remains on the buy side with a target reduced from 1990 to 1800 GBp.
- Rheinmetall: Berenberg remains long with a target raised from 115 to 155 EUR.
- Rightmove: Morgan Stanley goes from underweight to weighted online.
- Schindler: Berenberg remains to be retained with a target reduced from 270 to 240 CHF.
- Saint-Gobain: Berenberg remains to be kept with a price target raised from 60 to 62 EUR.
- Societe Generale: Citigroup lowers its target price from 41 to 35 EUR.
- Symrise: Morgan Stanley goes from underweight to weighted online by targeting EUR 106.
- Technip Energies: JP Morgan lowers its target price from 17.50 to 13.20 EUR.
- Telecom Italia: Jefferies remains long with a price target reduced from 0.50 to 0.44 EUR.
In France
Main results publications
- Atos: the new management has “loaded the boat” in 2021 with a net loss of €3 billion and promises of a better tomorrow.
Important (and less important) announcements
- New vehicle registrations contracted by 13% in France in February.
- Stellantis presents its long-term growth strategy.
- TotalEnergies does not currently intend to take specific measures vis-à-vis Russia.
- EssilorLuxottica finalizes the acquisition of the Walman Optical laboratory network in the United States.
- Orange is launching a new stage in the transformation of its mobile networks in Europe, with the gradual shutdown of 2G and 3G networks before the end of the decade.
- Cartier (Compagnie Financière Richemont) sues Tiffany (LVMH) for theft of trade secrets.
- Arkema completes the acquisition of the Performance Adhesives business from Ashland.
- Verallia announced on Monday the temporary suspension of its production at its Zorya site in western Ukraine.
- Société Foncière Lyonnaise buys the Pasteur building from Primonial REIM France.
- Universal Music has acquired Neil Diamond’s entire historical catalog of songs.
- Bahrain authorizes the emergency use of Valneva’s inactivated vaccine against COVID-19, VLA2001.
- TF1 and Altice Media are opening exclusive negotiations for the sale of FTX Channel, in the event that the proposed merger with the M6 Métropole Télévision group is authorized. M6 is also negotiating the sale of 6Ter to Altice Media.
- Herige takes over assets from Activence in the PACA region.
- Agrogénération has suspended its activity in Ukraine.
- Savencia takes stock of its exposure to Russia and Ukraine.
- Nicox License Partner Ocumension Achieves Positive Results in Chinese Clinical Study of Zerviate.
- Maldives’ largest streaming service provider chooses Verimatrix platform.
- Graines Voltz finalizes the acquisition of Andre Briant Jeunes Plants.
- The transfer of the listing of the shares of Diagnostic Medical Systems to the Euronext Growth market will be effective on March 3, 2022.
- Fermentalg completes a first funding round of €11 million for its subsidiary CarbonWorks dedicated to the circular economy of CO2.
- Ekinops signs a commercial partnership with Fujitsu.
- Delta Drone draws a tranche of €0.5 million from ORNAN.
- CS Group, Rothschild, Société Anonyme d’Explosifs et Produits Chimiques, Auplata, Soditech, Televerbier, Unibel, Bel, com, Audacia, Inventiva, Société Française de Casinos, Genfit, Cerinnov, Bernard Loiseau, Groupe SFPI have published their accounts and / or their predictions.
In the world
Publications of results
- Bayer: the group is back to profit, which will reach €1 billion in 2021.
- HP Inc: the title lost 2.5% off session despite the publication of results rather in line with expectations.
- PubMatic: the action falls by 10% outside the session after mixed results.
- Zoom Video: the action is down 2% after the session in the wake of the publication of its quarterly.
Important announcements (and others)
- Shell will stop its capital partnerships with Gazprom subsidiaries.
- Linde will buy back up to $10 billion of its own shares.
- Toshiba’s chairman and vice-chairman resign.
- Volkswagen and Volvo Car suspend deliveries to Russia. Mercedes too.
- Citigroup estimates its exposure to Russia at around $10 billion.
- The FTC is preparing to fight Amazon’s operation on MGM, according to The Information.
- Lucid lowers its production targets.
- Zurich Insurance undertakes to respect the Swiss sanctions against Russia.
- Holcim has completed the acquisition of Malarkey Roofing Products.
- Toyota will restart production in Japan from Wednesday after a cyberattack targeted a supplier.
- Celyad stops a phase 1b trial, the title falls.
- The main publications of the day: Salesforce, Target, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Sea Limited, Bank of Montreal, Bayer, Baidu, Flutter, Beiersdorf, Swiss Life, Symrise, Croda, Covestro, HelloFresh, Prysmian, AMC Entertainment… All the schedule here.
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