Let’s pretend to think that this half-session will be decisive, since no one is fooled, the period that opens before us lends itself more to the preparation of reports for the current year and forecasts for the following year. . This is precisely the program that I have in store for you this morning, allowing me a hook since I will bring you to a theme that I love, that of raw materials.
I slip you below the performances since the 1er January of the main commodities, which I classified into four categories – energy, industrial metals, precious metals and then agricultural commodities.
Despite a rising dollar, 2021 is a great year for most commodities, except for precious metals, which has had a tough year. To be convinced, just look at the scores of the compartment since January 1 (in USD I specify): -4.80% for gold, -9.30% for platinum, -14.50% for silver and -23 % for palladium, while other commodities mostly posted positive double-digit scores.
The year has been particularly prolific for the energy compartment, led by oil, which has grown by almost 50% since 1er January. The economic recovery, synonymous with an increase in the transport of people and goods and more production and consumption, has boosted the demand for crude oil, which is gradually recovering from the pandemic shock of 2020. At the same time, OPEC +, which federates the largest oil producers in the world, has ensured that the market does not fall back into its past failings, namely an overabundance of supply over demand. By striving to only gradually increase its production, the enlarged cartel has given itself the means to support oil prices, to the dismay of the powers dependent on hydrocarbons. However, the real star of the compartment is of course the price of natural gas in Europe, which I have not included in the graph above due to a problem of scale since its price has flared up by almost 800% this year. Still in the fossil fuel register, coal is also emerging as an unsuspected champion of 2021.
Industrial metals are also not unworthy, far from it. The evolution of the copper price bears witness to this, since after having progressed by 26% in 2019, the so-called barometer of the world economy is back on track by gaining 24.20% this year. Note that the price of tin has practically doubled since January 1, which gives me the opportunity to dust off an article written a few years ago about the characteristics of this metal, essential for the development of new technologies.
On the soft commodities side, inflation has also affected foodstuffs, as evidenced by the jump in the prices of corn and wheat. However, we are still far, very far, from the variations recorded in the price of coffee, which reached a level ten years old. Not all investors got hooked on caffeine to get there. The causes of this shock come rather from the offer with capricious weather, shipping constraints or labor shortages. Production has thus contracted, enough for the market to become in deficit this year.
Let’s go back to the equity markets, which are still in shape as Wall Street rebounded sharply yesterday, allowing the S & P500 to close above 4720 points for the first time in its history. Early this morning, the Nikkei (+ 0.05%) and the Hang Seng (+ 1.13%) nibbled away some ground not to say that they stalled. The CAC40 should open close to equilibrium, which is indeed what the pre-open indicators suggest.
The economic highlights of the day
This will not surprise many people: no major indicator is expected today. In France, the session will end at 2:00 p.m.
EUR / USD is stable at 1.133 USD. An ounce of gold is trading at 18,010 USD. Oil climbs back above $ 76 for Brent and $ 73 for WTI. The yield on the US government bond is 1.49% over 10 years. Bitcoin crosses the $ 50,000 mark per coin.
The main changes in recommendations
- DHT Holdings: Fearnley Securities remains on the buy side but lowers its target from 10 to 7.20 USD.
- Frontline LTD: Fearnley Securities reiterates its positive opinion but downgrades its target from 14.35 to 9.61 USD.
- Quidel Corporation: Nephron Research is no longer selling and raises its target from $ 100 to $ 140.
- Sonova: Research Partners begins monitoring the purchase with a target of CHF 420.
- StoneCo: Credit Suisse maintains its neutral opinion but slashes its price target, which drops from 100 to 22 USD.
- Valora: Research Partners switches from buy to hold and lowers its price target to CHF 150.
News from companies
In France
- After the French Army, it is Spain’s turn to order 36 helicopters from Airbus.
- EssilorLuxottica and GrandVision sign an agreement with Orig Bene for the sale of 177 stores in the Netherlands and Belgium.
- Icade buys four private hospitals in Portugal for 213 million euros
- Eiffage finalizes the acquisition of 35% of the A65 motorway for $ 253 million.
- Valneva is negotiating a large grant for its factory in Livingston, Scotland.
- Lysogene concludes a loan agreement of 15 million euros with the European Investment Bank.
In the world
- Merck’s Anti-Covid Tablets Obtain Emergency Use Clearance From FDA.
- Tesla will disable the ability to play video games in the car while it is in motion.
- Meta (Facebook) is appealing a UK decision forcing it to sell Giphy.
- Crocs to buy shoe brand Hey Dude for $ 2.5 billion.
- HSBC Holdings acquires the Indian mutual funds division of L&T Finance Holdings for $ 425 million.
- Julius Bär finalizes its 2021 share buyback program.
- Banco De Sabadell grants $ 232 million loan to Acerinox.