Parliamentary elections in France
Macron camp heading for majority
06/12/2022, 8:22 p.m
In the French parliamentary elections, President Macron’s electoral alliance is almost level with the left-green alliance. According to the first projections, both come to 25 to 26 percent. Macron’s party should get the most seats because of the majority voting system.
France’s re-elected President Emmanuel Macron has the prospect of a clear majority in the National Assembly after the first round of the general election. Extrapolations saw the President’s centre-camp in the evening at 25.2 to 25.6 percent almost on a par with the left-wing alliance at 25.2 to 26.1 percent. However, forecasts assume that the distribution of seats after the second round of voting in a week will see a clear majority for the Liberal Alliance.
Accordingly, the Macron camp could get around 255 to 310 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. It is unclear whether an absolute majority of at least 289 seats will be achieved. The result is a success for the new left-wing alliance of leftists, communists, greens and socialists led by left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon. However, the forecasts give them only about 150 to 210 of the seats.
The left-wing alliance was doomed by the complicated electoral system, which led to sometimes serious differences between the percentage of votes and the distribution of seats. In the end, only the votes for the winner in the respective constituency count. Seats are allocated by direct election, usually in two rounds. The requirements for getting into the runoff at all are tough. Institutes see Macron’s center alliance as better placed to intercept votes from candidates eliminated in the first round.
Above all, supporters of the winner go to the polls
Despite dissatisfaction with his first term in office, Macron benefited from the fact that the parliamentary elections in France were perceived as confirmation of the presidential election. In particular, supporters of the winner take part in the voting, while others often stay at home. The disadvantage of the left alliance was that general interest in the election was low and Macron entered the election campaign late and gave little chance to attack.
For Macron, the issue in the parliamentary elections is whether he will be able to implement his plans in his second term. These are, for example, the controversial pension reform, purchasing power support in the crisis and urgently needed improvements in education and health care. The liberal also wants to focus more on environmental policy, but above all wants to push ahead with the expansion of nuclear power in addition to renewable energies. For all this he needs a majority in Parliament. The second chamber, the Senate, is less important than the National Assembly and is currently conservative.
Absolute majority not secured
If the votes are only enough for a relative majority, the president and the government would be forced to seek support from the other camps. It is likely that there will then be a minority government which, depending on the project, will try to rely on centre-left or centre-right forces. Irrespective of the precise balance of power in Parliament, it is becoming apparent that Germany and Europe can continue to count on France as a reliable partner.
Depending on the parties, the Left Alliance should sit in parliament in political groups, so it probably won’t appear as a united body all the time. It is to be expected that Socialists and Republicans will vote with the Macron camp on Germany and Europe issues instead of blocking. France will also remain an integral part of the West’s united front against the aggressor Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
State leaders against left veterans
The election is also a long-distance duel between two very different political characters. On the one hand, the 44-year-old, eloquent President and former investment banker Macron. On the international stage he acts as a sovereign leader, but on a national level he struggles with an image as an arrogant elite politician.
Opposite him stands the left veteran Mélenchon, a shrewd left ideologue and strategist who sees himself as an advocate of the people and social justice. The 70-year-old is building on a decades-long political career and, like Macron, has his roots in the Socialists.
The right-wing national Rassemblement National party, on the other hand, was less present, whose top candidate Marine Le Pen Macron lost in the final round of the presidential election. They performed strongly with 18.9-19.2 percent but still can only hope for 10-45 seats as the other parties will try to unite against them. The hitherto strongest opposition force and traditional people’s party of the Republicans plus allies suffered another electoral defeat with only 11.3 to 13.7 percent of the votes. They see forecasts at 40 to 80 seats.