Partial mobilization & annexations – What Russia is planning now – News


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Russia continues to escalate: Putin threatens an annexation and mobilizes additional armed forces. What does that mean?

What is the planned annexation of Ukrainian territories about? By Tuesday, the Russian occupiers in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as in Cherson and Zaporizhia in the south, want to use mock referees to enforce the union with Russia. The alleged votes are contrary to international law because they are taking place without the consent of Ukraine, under martial law and not according to democratic principles.

With the annexation, the Kremlin would rate future attacks on the areas as attacks on its own territory. And Putin threatens: “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will definitely use all available means to protect Russia and our people.” So also nuclear weapons.

How does Putin justify the annexation?


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Putin justifies this with the alleged protection of the civilian population there from Ukrainian attacks. Two and a half million people had to flee because of the fighting. “Those who remained – around five million people – are now subjected to constant artillery and rocket attacks from neo-Nazi fighters. They attack hospitals and schools and carry out terrorist attacks against civilians,” Putin claimed in his speech.

What does Putin want to achieve with the partial mobilization? The so-called “special military operation” in Russia has probably not brought the Kremlin anywhere near the hoped-for result. Although the Russian troops occupied large areas in the east and south, they had to withdraw from the Kharkiv region under pressure from the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The occupation is also crumbling in other areas.

Against this background, Putin probably hopes to be able to bring about a turnaround on the battlefield with a total of 300,000 reservists. And he is also likely to speculate that his recent threats will intimidate Ukraine and its Western supporters.


Strength of the Russian military Current partial mobilization by reservists reservists conscripts population Active Soldiers 46′700’000 850,000 6‘000 killedRussian information 70‘000 – 8th0′000 killed or injuredUS disclosures 300’000 2‘000′000 Source: Globalfirepower (Russian casualties in the Ukraine war will only be taken into account from 2023.), *Russian government *

How realistic are Putin’s plans? According to forecasts by international military experts, Russia is likely to take longer than expected and will only be able to set up units with dubious combat effectiveness. “These are people who first have to be trained, they have to be equipped and integrated into combat-ready troops,” says security expert Benno Zogg from ETH Zurich. That doesn’t happen that fast. The US military expert Rob Lee said on Twitter that more and more soldiers on the Russian side were involved in the fight who didn’t want to be there. His conclusion: “Between Ukrainian and Russian associations, the difference in morale and the cohesion of the troops is increasing.”

What does this mean for the Ukrainian counter-offensives? In Kyiv, the announcement from Moscow was noted calmly. The external advisor to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mikhail Podoljak, asked on Twitter: “Is everything still going according to plan or not?” President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously stressed that Ukraine would not be intimidated. In addition, fresh forces are likely to arrive on the Ukrainian side in the coming months. For example, Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Great Britain and other western countries.

How should partial mobilization be enforced?


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Russia’s governors were directly instructed to organize the enlistment of soldiers in their regions. To enforce the mobilization, Putin has also just tightened several laws. Desertion and “voluntary” entry into captivity are now severely punished.

In addition, after Putin’s order for partial mobilization, conscripted Russians are no longer allowed to leave their place of residence according to the law. The State Duma, on the other hand, said that people could still travel undisturbed within Russia, but that trips abroad were no longer recommended.

How are the Russians reacting to the partial mobilization? Since the beginning of the war, many Russians have feared such a move by the Kremlin. On Wednesday, independent organizations set up direct counseling hotlines for men who receive a call-up notice.

Many flights to countries that can still be reached from Russia were fully booked. There were protests in several cities, and more than 1,000 people were arrested. Nationwide unrest is not to be expected. On the one hand, the Kremlin has recently massively expanded its repression of critics. In addition, Russia’s state media have been drumming into citizens for months that the country is being attacked by NATO and the “collective West” – and that defending against it is now a patriotic duty.

How is the West doing? Senior Western politicians see Putin’s announcement as a “sign of weakness” and an “act of desperation” over Russia’s recent military failures. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Putin “completely underestimated” the situation from the start. However, it is unclear how Western countries will deal with the new escalation apart from words – in particular with Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if necessary. Direct military intervention by the West is ruled out.

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