Warsaw initially welcomed the neighbor’s help with air defense and then unnecessarily snubbed Berlin. The President may have to limit the foreign policy damage once again.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda speaks in Torun in front of a new air defense system.
Germany has undoubtedly made many mistakes in its Ostpolitik over the past two decades. The eastern NATO member states have often and rightly criticized Berlin for being too close to Russia and for its hesitant military engagement. But now that Berlin has made an important gesture of solidarity by proposing to station its own Patriot missiles in Poland, Warsaw is unnecessarily alienating its NATO partner.
Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht’s offer to move the batteries directly to the Ukrainian border initially met with approval from her counterpart. But on Wednesday, Mariusz Blaszczak “recommended” the Germans to send them to Ukraine instead. With the obviously uncoordinated proposal, he took Lambrecht by surprise, who maintained that the missiles were part of the NATO countries’ defense mechanisms. A deployment outside of this territory would have to be discussed within the organization.
The requested help for Kyiv seems to be a pretense
It is undisputed that Ukraine needs more Western help with air defense. Russian attacks against critical civilian infrastructure threaten to cripple the country in winter, and outdated Soviet anti-aircraft systems are not enough. Paradoxically, this was also shown by last week’s explosion on the Polish side of the border, triggered by a misguided Ukrainian missile, on which Lambrecht’s offer of support was based. In contrast to other arms, however, Germany is already delivering quite a bit to Kyiv in this area, the Iris-T SLM air defense system, for example, and the Gepard anti-aircraft tank, which is considered to be very effective.
Blaszczak’s “proposal” is also unrealistic or even deliberately manipulative because Patriots to the most delicate and complex systems belong, the delivery and use of which are severely restricted by the NATO countries. Even the batteries that the US stationed on the eastern border of close ally Poland after Russia’s attack on Ukraine are being operated by Americans. This also applies to other countries on the eastern flank.
A transfer of the German Patriots to the Ukraine would therefore either involve the stationing of NATO troops, which is politically impossible in view of the associated risk of escalation. Or it would entail lengthy training of Ukrainian troops, which does nothing to get the country safely through this difficult winter. In addition, Germany could not decide either of these things for itself, even if it wanted to. The leader of Poland’s ruling party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, was therefore wrong when he said this week that a move to Ukraine would show “that the Germans are really changing their attitude”.
Nevertheless, Kaczynskis is likely intervention brought about the strange about-face in Warsaw. It is primarily to be assessed as domestic political theatrical thunder: His Law and Justice party (PiS) is in the primary campaign, and anti-German tones are a tried and tested means of mobilizing the right-wing core electorate. In addition, she and Kaczynski obviously have trouble with the idea that German soldiers could one day be on Polish territory, even if they were sent as allies to operate an anti-aircraft system to protect Poland.
Warsaw’s unwise policies are also controversial in Poland
Beyond the nationalist wing of the PiS, however, the snub against Germany is also irritating in Poland. “The reason of state was sacrificed to the interests of the party,” is the accusation the bourgeois newspaper «Rzeczpospolita». She sees this crossing a red line that ultimately endangers national security.
In fact, the PiS is in need of explanations. Because even if she sees Germany, in view of the many bilateral areas of conflict, as a difficult partner who is not always reliable when it comes to security policy matters and who is viewed with suspicion: Wouldn’t it be in Poland’s interest to honor a positive step instead of giving Berlin the impression that one could do it never please the neighbors anyway?
Apparently, political allies of the PiS also see it this way: On Friday, President Andrzej Duda, who had already acted as a foreign policy guarantor of stability in conflicts with the Americans, got involved in the discussion: “These missiles were intended to defend Polish territory and Polish citizens,” he said announced to the German Patriots. In doing so, he put the statements made by his defense minister into perspective, even though he maintained that stationing in Ukraine was still desirable. But this is a German decision.
This leaves the hope that Warsaw has the will to limit the crop damage it has caused and to stick to its Realpolitik on crucial security issues. Its own credibility has suffered from the erratic manoeuvres. As an ambitious leading power in Eastern Europe, Poland should have every interest in strengthening it again.