The upcoming 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be highly competitive, with Donald Trump gaining ground in polls while Kamala Harris maintains a strong presence. According to election analyst Jörg Schönenborn, the outcome will likely hinge on Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state. Nationally, Harris leads slightly with 47.9% compared to Trump’s 47%, but the electoral system could favor Trump due to his support in rural areas. The election landscape is marked by a division between solid Democratic and Republican states, with seven swing states holding significant electoral votes. Women voters, particularly younger demographics, are increasingly leaning towards Harris, creating a gender gap in support. Economic issues, including rising costs and dissatisfaction with the current economic direction, are central concerns for voters as they approach the polls.
US Election 2024: A Tight Race Ahead
Despite Donald Trump’s recent surge in polls, the final outcome of the upcoming US election remains uncertain, according to ARD election analyst Jörg Schönenborn. One critical insight is that the winner of Pennsylvania will likely determine the overall election victor.
Nationwide Polls: Who’s Leading?
Jörg Schönenborn: A key takeaway is that Donald Trump has made notable progress in recent weeks, while the competition remains extremely close. It’s essential to approach national polls with caution, as the election results are ultimately decided by 50 states and the capital independently.
Examining Kamala Harris’s polling trajectory reveals that following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, she initially gained traction but has stabilized at a high percentage. Meanwhile, Trump has steadily closed the gap, particularly throughout October.
With just a week to go before the US presidential election, Harris and Trump are nearly neck-and-neck. According to FiveThirtyEight, a partner of the ABC network, Harris stands at 47.9%, while Trump follows closely at 47%. Historical trends show that these numbers could easily fluctuate by three points, indicating that either outcome remains viable.
This slim margin generally affords Trump a slight advantage due to the electoral system, which tends to favor voters in more rural, Republican-leaning states. Therefore, if Trump leads, the path to victory appears more straightforward; conversely, even if he trails in the national vote counts, he could still clinch the presidency.
Jörg Schönenborn has been the WDR program director since 2014 and previously served as the editor-in-chief of WDR television. He has been recognized as an election moderator for ARD since 1998.
Pennsylvania: The Key Battleground State
Focus on Swing States:
Schönenborn: The political landscape in the US is evolving dramatically. Red states are becoming even redder, while blue states are solidifying their Democratic strongholds. This year, the national spotlight is on seven swing states that had ambiguous results in the last election.
Democratic states boast over 220 electoral votes, while Trump’s red states, particularly those across the central region down to Texas, account for nearly 220 as well. The outcome hinges on these seven pivotal states.
States where Trump is gaining momentum include Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, even if he succeeds in these states, he won’t achieve the necessary 270 electoral votes to win. Three crucial Midwest states, known as the ‘Blue Wall,’ show Harris performing well in Wisconsin and Michigan. Ultimately, Pennsylvania stands out as the most fiercely contested state this time around. The prevailing sentiment is clear: the victor in Pennsylvania is likely to become the next president.
Throughout her campaign, Harris has faced significant challenges—will she be able to break through and become the first woman to occupy the White House?
The Role of Women in the Election
Women as a Deciding Factor:
Schönenborn: This election marks the second time a woman has run as a candidate. While some voters remain indifferent to gender, for others, it is a significant factor. Trump has historically attracted a male-dominated voter base, even when he did not win the presidency or the popular vote last time.
In contrast, women, particularly younger voters, have been leaning towards Kamala Harris, creating what Americans refer to as a ‘gender gap.’ Young women appear to strongly support Harris, while young men, particularly those with immigrant backgrounds, tend to favor the Republicans, including a notable number of conservatives among the Hispanic population. This ‘woman versus man’ dynamic could give Democrats an edge among female voters, although they risk losing some support from men.
Ultimately, many Americans are focusing on the economic proposals set forth by both Harris and Trump.
Key Issues Shaping the Election
Economic Concerns Take Center Stage:
Schönenborn: As the saying goes, “It’s the economy, stupid.” During my recent trip to the US, it became evident that rising prices and living costs are top concerns for the electorate. Recent polling indicates that 60% of respondents feel the country is heading in the wrong direction regarding the economy, while 70% express dissatisfaction with living costs.
Views on foreign policy show a slightly more balanced perspective, with 56% believing