Uright-wing minority for a reform that promises to be debated. This is, in part, the conclusion of a study carried out by the independent polling institute Cluster 17 conducted, for Point, out of a sample of 2,168 people aged 18 and over*. Asked about a possible decline in the legal age of departure, around 33% are in favor of maintaining the status quo at 62 when only 22% would be for a legal decline at 64, defended by Emmanuel Macron. 39% of French people would even like to see the proposal defended by Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of a departure at 60 years old adopted.
Potentially explosive for the executive, which intends to accelerate on this subject from the fall: the day before yesterday, Wednesday September 21, Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne received the main group leaders in the National Assembly and the Senate, without any does not declare itself in favor of a possible amendment to the social security financing bill (PLFSS). An age measure that would ultimately see the pension reform adopted without going through a bill. At the risk of offending part of the electorate.
READ ALSOPension reform: Macron’s “poisoned gift” to Borne
Protest Bow
Indeed, the study points out that an axis of opposition is emerging between the voters of Marine Le Pen and those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, “unsurprisingly, extremely hostile to such a measure”. For example, only 13% of Marine Le Pen voters in the first round say they are in favor of a postponement of the legal age against 44% in favor of a lowering. A much more marked tendency on the left to seek the side of the votes in favor of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Unsurprisingly, 72% are in agreement with the return to 60 years. The addition of these votes could lead to the constitution of a “challenging arc”, opposed to a pension reform.
The poll also points to the fragmentation of Emmanuel Macron’s electorate. Indeed, only a right-wing minority who slipped a ballot for the head of state – the “liberals” and the “centrists” – consider themselves in favor of a postponement of the legal age. A measure included in the first version of the reform before the Covid-19 crisis intervened. The second section of the Macronist electorate, with a more social democratic tendency, is mainly for maintaining the current age at 62, or even a return to 60.
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A sign that such a measure still divides as much, it is indeed in the conservative electorate that the government can hope to seek some support. Cluster 17 notes that 49% of Valérie Pécresse’s voters as well as 31% of Éric Zemmour’s electorate would be in favor. Less than expected, but a clear signal that such a reform is less rejected on the right than on the left of the political spectrum. As a result, the poll posits that only a narrow majority – 53% of those who voted for Emmanuel Macron – are in favor of raising the legal age to 64. And the study concludes: “Not only does this unite the electorates of the radical left and the RN, who are clearly opposed to it, but it is likely to divide the coalition of voters who have so far supported the president. of the Republic. »
To find out all about the clusters and find your own, go to the website: https://cluster17.com/les-clusters/
*Study carried out by Cluster 17 for Point from a sample of 2,168 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The sample is drawn up according to the quota method, with regard to the criteria of sex, age, socio-professional category, type of municipality and region of residence. Online self-administered questionnaire. Interviews carried out on September 20 and 21, 2022.