Pension reform: do the elected representatives of the majority already see themselves winning?

Louis de Raguenel, edited by Loane Nader
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09:35, February 06, 2023

After months of dithering and debate, it’s D-Day for pension reform. The latest discussions begin this Monday in the National Assembly with the aim of voting “The mother of reforms”, as Emmanuel Macron presents. Last opportunity to study the state of mind of the ministers before the deadline.

They say they are rather confident… Most of the ministers interviewed by Europe 1 do not fear a turnaround in the vote for the pension reform instigated by their government. The situation almost proves them right, with nearly 20,000 amendments to be studied in 11 days, including more than 18,000 tabled by the Nupes coalition, there is very little chance that the real issues of the reform will be debated.

A minister who is eager to do battle explains: “Now that we know their amendments, we are no longer boxing in a vacuum, we are going to hit them”. And this is undoubtedly the paradox of Nupes’ strategy: by tabling many amendments, the left is doing the government a service, unless “Nupes suddenly withdraws its amendments en masse”, warns a minister of size.

The executive hopes to rally up to 38 elected LRs

Then, with regard to the right-wing elected officials, the executive hopes to rally between 35 and 38 LR deputies after having made concessions to them. In this case, the minimum pension of 1,200 euros for all and the possibility of retiring at 63 instead of 64, for those who started working between the ages of 20 and 21, could influence certain votes in favor of the majority.

Finally, the RN does not seem to be scary, according to this minister: “As they seek to recover the LR electorate, they are not very combative”. But a threat still hangs over the government, the possible hardening of strikes and demonstrations and thus a prolonged paralysis of the country. It remains to be seen whether the majority will win their bet.

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