Alexandre Chauveau
modified to
08:25, January 08, 2023
Two days before the presentation of the pension reform, the pressure is mounting for the government. While he is determined to pass his text, the executive fears a major protest movement. And it is not Laurent Berger, opposed to any postponement of the legal retirement age, who will say the opposite. “Today there is a lot of social tension” warned the leader of the CFDT.
Should we expect a headwind in France against the pension reform? In any case, this is what the government fears two days before the presentation of the text to the National Assembly. And the words of Laurent Berger, leader of the CFDT, in the columns of Parisian, have everything to worry the executive: “Today there is a lot of social tension”, confirmed one of the main opponents of the text, and in particular of the decline in the legal retirement age. But officially, nothing to postpone or cancel the presentation of the bill. The government is determined to pass this text, seen by many as the most important of this second five-year term.
An agreement with the Republicans possible?
The reform, postponed just before the Covid-19 crisis, is meant to illustrate the president’s ability to reform. However, the executive knows that social mobilization should be massive. He could still count on the right, since the new boss of the Republicans, says in the Sunday newspaper that the budgetary, demographic and economic situation requires this reform. However, with a first condition: Éric Ciotti asks that it be spread over two five-year terms, until 2032.
An agreement with the Republicans would make it possible not to have recourse to 49.3; because such an outcome, possible within the framework of a budget vote, would be seen as a forced passage likely to fuel the protest movement.
A high-risk reform
The government knows that it is walking on embers because with the increase in energy prices and inflation, the executive may fear a social conflagration. The number of sectors in difficulty has multiplied in recent weeks and several advisers fear that the pension reform will be the trigger for a major social movement.
The weak mobilization of the Yellow Vests, this Saturday, reassured the highest summit of the State. The movement of the next few weeks, on the other hand, promises to be much more important.