A long day begins this Monday for the government: its fate is linked to the two motions of censure examined from 4 p.m. in the National Assembly. Two texts, one from the National Rally, the other transpartisan, on the initiative of the Liot group, co-signed by Nupes, the only one that could attract elected LRs and therefore give the executive cold sweats. The threshold to be reached is 287 votes, an absolute majority. And in this case, the pension reform would be rejected. The right has the cards in hand.
Aurélien Pradié will vote for the motion of censure
And according to the various calculations, it would take between 25 and 30 Republican votes for the motion to obtain a majority. The only problem? Not all LR deputies opposed to the reform will vote for the motion. This figure, except surprise, should not be reached this afternoon in the hemicycle. Some do not want to mix their voices with those of the Nupes and the RN and respect the tradition of a so-called government party and others for fear of a dissolution which would be very likely to be triggered by Emmanuel Macron.
Even if those who will vote for one of the two motions are in the minority in the group, they would still be between 10 and 15 to want to try to overthrow the government. New voices on the right this Monday morning came out in favor of the vote of the motion of the LIOT group. Among them, Aurélien Pradié, who announced this Monday morning on Europe 1 that he will vote for the cross-partisan censure motion tabled by Charles de Courson, but also Pierre Henri-Dumont, elected from Pas-de-Calais. This fifteen favorable voices from the LRs is a strong signal of distrust from the Assembly towards the government, but also on the divisions on the right.
Olivier Marleix, however, calls on his deputies to responsibility and team spirit this Monday morning in Le Figaro. But the LR dissidents assume, like Pierre Cordier, deputy of the Ardennes. “As a party leader, of course, he has to lay down a clear rule, which I can understand. The fact remains that MPs are accountable to their constituents and not to a political party. . I am a representative of the people, I have to vote. And there, it will be the opportunity to vote on this text.”
30 LR votes needed to pass the motion of censure?
And among the voters, we logically find many opponents of the reform such as Fabien Di Filippo, Maxime Minot or Ian Boucard. But all the opponents of the text will not vote for the motion, like Pierre-Henri Dumont, MP for Pas-de-Calais. “The freedom of vote, of choice is consubstantial with each deputy. A motion of censure which would be signed by members of the RN or members of La France insoumise, it will be without me.”