Person of the week: AKK, KGE, etc .: Who will be the first female Federal President in 2022?

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Person of the week: AKK, KGE, etc.
Who will be the first female Federal President in 2022?

By Wolfram Weimer

Political Berlin sorts the big personal details. In addition to the candidate for chancellor, the highest office in the state is also in focus. The likelihood that a woman will move into Bellevue Palace for the first time is increasing.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier starts the last year of his term in office. He doesn’t make an outstanding figure, but he does cut a fine figure. The Federal Republic of Germany had heads of state like Theodor Heuss who shaped culture, it had great speakers like Richard von Weizsäcker or Joachim Gauck, there were unfortunate ones like Heinrich Lübke or Horst Köhler and even tragic ones like Christian Wulff. Steinmeier belongs to the positive category of the respectable like Walter Scheel, Karl Carstens, Johannes Rau or Roman Herzog. The only thing missing is a memorable mark. Herzog was the jerk speaker, Rau the big hugger, Gauck the freedom preacher. What remains of Steinmeier? Perhaps in the pandemic he will still be the comforter of a wounded nation.

He still has a year for the final profile. Then his term of office ends, and the debate about the office of Federal President from 2022 began in Berlin. Should it be extended? Who would be the alternative? Ursula von der Leyen would have been an option, but she is now the EU Commission President. The following options can therefore be heard in the Berlin power circles:

Steinmeier option: At first glance, there is a lot to suggest that Steinmeier should be extended to a second term. On the other hand, he would be 66 years old at the start of the second round, and the political realignment of the republic with the upcoming federal elections makes re-election unpredictable. The SPD stands firmly behind him, but if the SPD should no longer belong to the next federal government (which according to current surveys there are some arguments), then Steinmeier's days should be numbered. Because the Union and the Greens are already openly demanding a woman for the highest office in the state. All previous 12 federal presidents were elderly men.

According to the situation of the majority, the CDU / CSU should provide the first female federal president. Unless there are black-green coalition negotiations, the Greens claim the office for themselves and defy it from the Union. Both parties have presidential women with high political experience in their ranks. The chances for Steinmeier decrease the more likely a new black-green government comes.

Probability for Steinmeier II: 20 percent

Option Kramp-Karrenbauer: As a former prime minister, CDU party leader and defense minister, she has all the experience for the highest office – a balanced disposition and a central majority position. Kramp-Karrenbauer enjoys a non-partisan high reputation for its straightforwardness and conciliation. On the other hand, she is also acting in Brussels as the next NATO Secretary General. As a Saarland native, her way to Brussels would be shorter than that to Berlin. Her advocates in Brussels consider her a reliable NATO ally, and her calm, professional work as defense minister is "internationally appreciated". You can bridge the conflicting interests of the members well. In addition, Germany (next to the USA and Great Britain the third largest defense investor in NATO) is a key to a new NATO of the future. With a German Secretary General, the chances that Germany will finally increase its defense spending to the agreed level would also increase. In short – the call from Brussels is quite loud.

Probability for a Federal President AKK: 20 percent

Option Klöckner: Federal Minister Julia Klöckner is one of the most powerful women in the Union – she has been deputy CDU federal chairman for almost a decade and achieved the second-best result of the five deputies at the most recent party congress. Since Merkel is leaving, from whom Leyen has gone to Brussels and AKK is in talks for NATO, Klöckner is considered the key politician of the CDU future.

In this role she used the last International Women's Day to explicitly position the CDU in the presidential personnel. From the point of view of the CDU deputy chairman, "it is time" for Germany to have a female head of state. Literally she announced: "I find it strange that there has not been a woman as Federal President in Germany in all these years. It is time for a bit of normality even in the highest office." The argument is strong, and since then there has been general approval from the leadership of the CDU, because it cleverly makes it clear that they do not want Frank-Walter Steinmeier to be re-elected. With the demand for a woman Steinmeier does not even have to be criticized, it just has to finally have a woman in office. Since the CDU has relatively improved its position vis-à-vis the SPD in the Federal Assembly (and will very likely improve further with the upcoming elections), the next Federal President is likely to come from within the ranks of the Union.

Klöckner cleverly opens a door for her own career prospects at Bellevue Palace. Klöckner in the presidential office would suddenly lift the mood. Even the Green Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann praised her council and her cheerfulness in the Palatinate. She is also considered a quick-witted speaker and has a broad educational background. In addition to political science, she also studied theology and pedagogy and is a member of the Central Committee of Catholics. In short – she is among the candidates. But Klöckner was only born in 1972 and actually too young for the highest office. But she can wait. She would also be a good candidate in five or ten or fifteen years, for example if Steinmeier is now renewed.

Probability for a Federal President Klöckner 2022: 10 percent

Option Aigner: Ilse Aigner has a longstanding reputation as a reliable top politician, federal and state minister. She is the popular President of the Bavarian State Parliament and thus something like the felt President of Bavaria. In a sense, she's already training. Aigner has deliberately stayed out of the cabal and power struggles between the CDU and CSU in recent years. She left the schemes to the men and at the crucial moment even renounced access to the office of prime minister or CSU chairwoman. Power politicians of the old style therefore considered Aigner to be too soft, while the majority of the population considered them too decent. That could help her now.

Aigner has a high level of integrity – and she is presidential and balancing in her whole nature. Aigner's chances are particularly high if Markus Söder does not become a candidate for chancellor of the Union. Then the CSU would have backed off twice after Markus Weber in the EU Council Presidency and the informal right to at least fill the office of Federal President. Aigner would not only be the first woman in Bellevue Palace, but also the first CSU representative in the highest office. The CSU can be trusted to bring this personality into the next coalition negotiations as an offensive demand.

Probability for a Federal President Aigner: 25 percent

Göring-Eckhardt option: If there is a black-green federal government in autumn, the Greens will also have an important say. Their position of power in the Federal Assembly is, however, significantly smaller than that of the Union. At the same time, the office of the Federal President could become a symbol of the coalition negotiations. If the Greens demand and enforce this, then the natural candidate would be Katrin Göring-Eckardt. The East German was from 2005 to 2013 Vice President of the German Bundestag as well as the top candidate and parliamentary group leader of the Greens. She is considered a bourgeois Greens and thus capable of being connected to the Union. Their religious ties also play a role. Göring-Eckardt was President of the Evangelical Church in Germany from 2009 to 2013, which has earned her sympathy from many Christian Democrats. For her chances, it is important that she does not attack the Union too hard in the federal election campaign, but rather communicates as a black-green presidential bridge-builder. In any case, she no longer answers the question of whether she would like to accept the office.

Probability for a Federal President Göring-Eckhardt: 25 percent