Tuesday, January 04, 2022
Person of the week
Macron pulled Scholz over the table
By Wolfram Weimer
The EU classification of nuclear energy as climate-friendly not only puts the traffic light government to the test: The decision is also a victory for Emmanuel Macron. The French president exposes the weaknesses of the German energy policy.
The Greens in the Berlin government are raging. The EU Commission follows France’s position and wants to classify gas and nuclear power as climate-friendly. For Steffi Lemke (new Federal Environment Minister) and Robert Habeck (new Economic and Climate Protection Minister) an absurdity. The Greens fought for decades to get out of atomic energy, Germany is switching off one nuclear power plant after the other and now this policy is being openly discredited by its European partners.
In fact, the Brussels decision is a threefold bang for the new traffic light government in Berlin.
Macron marks his new territory
First, the process is seen across Europe as a power-political victory for Emmanuel Macron. France has been advocating an offensive nuclear power policy for months, because nuclear power is cheap, stable and climate-friendly. The new federal government, which is co-governed by green, sees it differently and wants to phase out nuclear energy completely in addition to coal. In the dispute over the direction, Paris has now achieved an important stage success. Because not only the EU Commission, also many EU neighboring states are in favor of the use of atomic energy and on the part of France. Macron mobilized this majority just at the moment when Berlin appears politically weakened. After Angela Merkel’s resignation, the new government has not yet been effectively formed, the new Federal Chancellor is rated as weaker than Merkel in Paris and the coalition is considered unstable on this issue.
The new federal government officially spoke out vehemently against such a classification in December. The new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock addressed the issue in a targeted manner during her inaugural visits to Paris and Brussels. She now looks downright duped diplomatically. The CSU MEP Markus Ferber smirked: “The new government really messed up its first test in Brussels.” The left-liberal newspaper “Der Standard” in Vienna comments laconically: “The French are given carte blanche.” One hears among French diplomats that Macron wants to become a political leader with the nuclear issue in Europe. After Merkel’s departure, he was pushing into the leadership role of the EU and demonstrating this on the nuclear issue. France has held the EU Council Presidency since January 1, 2022 and is showing Berlin where it’s going. The conclusion of the power politicians is: “Macron has demonstratively pulled Scholz over the table.” And Ursula von der Leyen was happy to help him with this.
FDP praises the “technology-open” EU
Second, the decision of the EU Commission has what it takes to trigger a first coalition crisis in Berlin. Because the Greens and parts of the SPD are raging over the initiative from Brussels and Paris. Olaf Scholz, however, is covered and is satisfied with the compromise that at least German gas-fired power plants should also be classified as sustainable. But the Greens see it very differently. The FDP, on the other hand, does not think Brussels’ decision is so wrong. An amused Bundestag Vice-President Wolfgаng Kubicki recommends the Greens, bittersweet: “By the way, you are not a good European if you only accept decisions that suit you.” While the Greens want to fight, revise or block the Brussels decision, Lukas Köhler, deputy leader of the FDP parliamentary group, declares unequivocally that a blockade is not an option: “There will be no qualified majority against the Commission’s proposal on nuclear energy.”
The liberals had always spoken out in favor of “technology openness” in the energy transition and criticized the Greens for wanting to switch off and ban too much. “Realistically, Germany needs modern gas-fired power plants as a transition technology because we are foregoing coal and nuclear power,” said Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and with the praise for Brussels also annoyed the Greens. While Habeck & Co. complain about Brussels’ wrong track on nuclear and gas, the FDP leader thinks: “I am grateful that the Commission has apparently heard our arguments.”
Germany treads a special path
Third, the Brussels incident exposes fundamental problems in German energy policy. Germany’s attempt to get out of oil, coal and nuclear power at the same time is increasingly seen as a risky undertaking abroad. The Wall Street Journal already commented on the German way as “stupidest energy policy in the world”. Germany already has the highest electricity prices in the world, is risking its industrial location, but is still not meeting its climate targets. In large parts of Europe, Germany’s rigorous energy transition is viewed as a half-baked experiment that is less popular than the French model.
“Nuclear energy is indispensable,” comments the Italian “La Stampa”. The Czech “Lidove Noviny” even sees an “inexorable logic for nuclear energy”. With the Netherlands, Poland, the Czech Republic and France, four of Germany’s immediate neighbors want to promote the use of nuclear energy. Shortly before Christmas, the Dutch government announced that it would build two new nuclear power plants and keep the only existing one in operation for longer.
In addition, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna reports a global surge in demand for nuclear power plants – specifically that 52 new nuclear power plants are currently under construction. China alone is building 13 new nuclear power plants, India has 7 new reactors under construction, and South Korea is building 4 new nuclear power plants.
But not only the major economic powers are investing massively, smaller countries are also opting for new entrants, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Poland, Bangladesh, Egypt, Jordan, Nigeria and Vietnam. According to the IAEA, 28 states currently want to start using nuclear power. As part of the global comeback, Japan has also decided to return to nuclear power.
Macron and IAEA agree
In the “high-case scenario” of its new outlook, the IAEA assumes that global nuclear power plant capacity will double to 792 gigawatts by 2050, compared to 393 GW last year. “The new IAEA forecasts show that nuclear energy will play an indispensable role in low-carbon energy production and the achievement of climate goals,” said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.
The IAEA figures, the decision of the EU and the Macron initiative are increasing the pressure on German energy policy. After all, one of the main reasons for the amazing comeback of nuclear energy is the global climate debate, in which the German traffic light government would so much like to take the lead in opinion and action. Grossi, on the other hand, criticizes Germany’s exit as a “one-off, special route”, while Macron argues similarly, claiming that Europe “will not achieve CO2 neutrality by 2050 without nuclear power”.
Nuclear power comeback without Germany
With his advance Macron knows not only many EU countries, but also the majority of the French behind him. He is even campaigning aggressively on the issue of nuclear power. “France is lucky because France has nuclear power,” stressed Macron, referring to CO2 emissions. Even the French Greens have meanwhile given up on the nuclear phase-out that used to be vehemently called for: “Nobody says that we will shut down the nuclear power plants tomorrow,” says the Green presidential candidate Yannick Jadot, to the astonishment of his German colleagues.
One reason for this is also the technological development. Several countries have developed new small modular reactors (SMRs) that greatly reduce the risk and waste problem. According to the IAEA, 84 SMR reactors are currently under development or under construction in 18 countries. Germany, which was once a world leader in nuclear technology and now wants to be a climate saver, suddenly looks pretty old. Macron brings Germany’s Greens in need of explanation.