Person of the week: That’s why Armin Laschet becomes Chancellor

Person of the week
That is why Armin Laschet becomes Chancellor

By Wolfram Weimer

The Union presents a lukewarm election program. It fits in with Armin Laschet’s strategy of balancing rather than polarizing. He embodies the center of the republic. Possibly uncool, but reliable.

CDU election programs are about as exciting as operating instructions for heating systems. Your surprise factor is zero percent, because just like heating installers, the CDU does not want to amaze or inspire anyone, but only wants to ensure that the German house functions properly. The new CDU electoral program is above all a sign that Germany remains a safe warm room of bourgeois comfort.

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A safe warm room of bourgeois comfort: Armin Laschet

(Photo: picture alliance / dpa)

The motto “stability and renewal” could also mean “security and freedom”, “good and happy” or “honey and cake”. The CDU is once again playing its favorite Adenauer discipline called “no experiments”. Kohl’s “Keep it up, Germany” or Merkel’s “You know me” are legendary program surrogates of this logic. Now Laschet is also completely following this tradition.

Left and Green criticize the program rather quietly and artificially indignant, find harmless words like “unimaginative”, “discouraged”, a “indictment”. Nobody gets really upset. Because the range specifically padded by Armin Laschet simply does not provide that. Who gets upset about heating installers?

In terms of power politics, Armin Laschet achieved an important stage success with this program presentation. On the one hand, he visibly involved Markus Söder and the CSU, it is – unlike 2017 – a joint program of the sister parties, the collegial appearance did not even seem tortured. Söder obviously makes his peace with Laschet. On the other hand, Laschet enforced his strategy of harmlessness within the party without contradiction. The Union is entering the closing stages of the election campaign and now has a no-experiment master plan.

Quiet with a method

Laschet’s strategy is criticized either as a sleeping car or Laschi calculation. In fact, his plan foresees a quiet, almost inactive election campaign, just don’t polarize, don’t upset anyone. Because that has the direct effect that the green and left milieus in Germany are demobilized. The friendly hugger Laschet is simply not suitable as an enemy. Even when Laschet speaks of the “decade of modernization” and the “unleashing package”, that sounds more like an online order for Aachener Printen than like the great capitalist disruption.

Laschet’s leisurely treading now has a method. Again and again he had to compete against robust, smart, loud and offensive opponents. Again and again he seemed inferior with his defensive nature and in polls hopelessly behind. Whether Hannelore Kraft or Norbert Röttgen, Friedrich Merz or Markus Söder – the alleged fabric softener ultimately defeated one competitor after the other using precisely this method. It has almost become his defensive specialty – to smile down with conciliation and to let the opponent step into the void when trying to mobilize. Laschet has stamina, he has shrewd resilience and the gift of sitting in a chair at the crucial moment on the political trip to Jerusalem.

Especially in the competition with Annalena Baerbock, the Laschet method proves to be a tricky affair. In addition to his basic Catholic calm, her nervous willingness to change has the effect of youthful arrogance. In addition to its Rhenish cosiness, its North German determination comes across as ambition. In addition to its balancing pragmatics (“We need a triad of climate protection, economic strength and social security”), its clear climate edge sounds like one-sidedness. In the role-play of the election campaign, the perceived competition between shepherd and nerd emerges.

Laschet’s patience method also includes sitting still on the banks of the political river until the opponents’ corpses drift past by themselves. When the Greens reveled in high spirits in the spring, Laschet was recommended to launch a communication offensive. But he did the opposite and preferred to leave the stage to the Greens – and trusted in their remarkable ability to dismantle themselves. Laschet knows that the Green Masters are big and biggest lead in the polls when it comes to gambling. In 2014 and 2017, despite high popularity ratings in the run-up to the elections, they fell far below expectations at single-digit values. The reason for this is not only due to wrongly chosen, unpopular topics (Veggie Day, tax increases, gasoline prices as well as heating mushroom, grill, home, air travel or car bans). Not only because of embarrassing mistakes such as concealed additional income or fudged biographies. Above all, the Greens offer the Germans something that the majority of them may not even want – lots of experiments.

Laschet’s “no experiments” offer is likely to better reflect the zeitgeist of the vast majority at the end of an agonizing pandemic. In any case, in current surveys he suddenly comes first when it comes to the chancellor question. Adenauer’s trick might still work.

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