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The new AfD protest voters are different than expected
By Wolfram Weimer
06/27/2023 10:23 am
The AfD is growing into the second strongest party in Germany in polls and has now won a first district election in Thuringia with 52.8 percent. But who actually follows the right-wing populists? And what do you really want?
Who are the millions of Germans who are suddenly becoming AfD sympathizers in protest at Berlin politics? Pollsters and sociologists have examined the milieus closely – their results are amazing. The perceived image of older people who are disgruntled and left behind from social hotspots is wrong. The new AfDler are well off, middle-aged and live in peaceful areas. The level of education also shows that they tend to be in the middle of society. More and more workers and union members are added – an alarm signal for the SPD. Especially since the new protest voters also have clear demands on the SPD-led government.
1st generation Middle Ages: The cliché of AfD grandpas has always been wrong. It feels like the right-wing populists are a grim elderly movement of older people. In fact, however, the evaluation shows after the federal elections 2017 and 2021 as well as a current Forsa survey that the middle generation in particular votes for AfD. An above-average 21 percent of 30- to 44-year-olds say they want to vote for the AfD, and among 45- to 59-year-olds the figure is even 24 percent. On the other hand, the AfD is much less popular with people over the age of sixty, old people and young people. Among the elderly and pensioners, only 15 percent support the AfD. Among schoolchildren and students, only 5 percent of those surveyed.
2. Professionals: A study by the union-affiliated Hans Böckler Foundation in 2019 shows that the Percentage of workers in the AfD following is surprisingly high. In Saxony and Brandenburg, 41 and 44 percent of workers vote for the AfD, while the proportion of pensioners is only 21 and 15 percent.
In the 2021 federal election, the AfD was already the second most popular party nationwide after the SPD Figures from Infratest dimap. So the electorate seems firmly anchored in working life – and it’s growing there. Forsa determined that as many as 19 percent of union members currently state that they want to vote for the AfD. The German trade unions are clearly distancing themselves from the AfD. This shows that the willingness to switch to the AfD is much greater than is commonly assumed in the workforce, which is traditionally aligned with the SPD.
3. Wealthy: The image of the left behind, socially disadvantaged AfD voters is also wrong. The Institute of the German Economy (IW) came at a depth study the AfD supporters came to the conclusion in 2016 that the earnings of AfD voters are even above the average of the population. As a rule, they are certainly employed and well off. In the last federal election, 73 percent of AfD voters stated that their economic situation was “good”. In the Sonneberg constituency, too, where the AfD has now won 52.8 percent of the votes in the district election, the unemployment rate has been one of the lowest in Thuringia for years, and is currently 5.1 percent.
4. Rural area: The idea that the AfD milieu feeds on prefabricated housing estates and social hotspots in metropolitan areas is also wrong. The popularity of the AfD is greatest where the idyll seems to be at home – in the country. The Forsa survey shows that 25 percent of residents in places with fewer than 5,000 inhabitants say they want to vote for the AfD. In places between 5,000 and 25,000 inhabitants it is 21 percent. Among the residents of cities between 100,000 and 500,000 inhabitants, approval for the AfD is only 14 percent. In the even larger cities it is only 12 percent. In fact, the AfD has so far had its best election and poll results in rural areas, while the popularity in large cities has so far been low. It is exactly the opposite of the Greens, who score poorly in rural areas and have their strongholds in the metropolises.
5. They know exactly what they’re protesting against: The widespread assessment that AfD voters have “vague” fears of social decline, modernization or the future is also untenable. AfD sympathizers have very clear ideas about what and why they are protesting. The dissatisfaction with the traffic light government – dramatically accelerated by the planned heating law – is the trigger for the current AfD high flight. A remarkable 79 percent of Germans are less or not at all satisfied with the federal government. For the government made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP, this is by far the weakest value in the ARD Germany trend.
There are three clear motives in terms of content, which particularly bothers the new right-wingers in the traffic light policy: According to ARD-Deutschlandtrend, AfD sympathizers state immigration and migration policy as by far their greatest motive (65 percent) (pdf). In second place (47 percent) comes annoyance at energy, environmental and climate policies, and third place (43 percent) is concern for the economy. All other motives follow far behind.
For the traffic light parties as for the CDU, this five-point finding is extremely dangerous. Because German right-wing populism – like in many other European countries before it – is breaking into mainstream society. The allegiance has left the generational, social and geographic periphery and is spreading into the center of society, even in established milieus such as unionized working class. At the same time, however, the finding shows that the protest is essentially nourished by the unresolved main problem of migration and the anger about climate policy. If the government resolves both, the protest movement could quickly implode again. According to the ZDF political barometer, 75 percent of Germans believe that the AfD is only elected to teach the other parties a lesson.