Podcast “Learned something again”: Transnistria? Already in Russia’s hands

Moldova has feared becoming Putin’s next victim since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The small country is not in NATO, not in the EU and has had a pro-Russian region on its territory for decades: Transnistria.

An explosion in a government building, two blasted transmission towers, an increased terror alert level – chaos has reigned in Transnistria for a few days. The authorities had reported several explosions in the past few days. On Monday there were explosions in the Ministry for State Security in the capital Tiraspol. State-controlled television reported that unknown assailants had fired at the ministry with grenade launchers. A day later, two transmission masts were blown up, with which the residents of Transnistria could receive Russian radio stations.

Russia blames Ukraine for the attacks. Ukraine says it was Russia itself. To foment panic in Transnistria and use Russian troops stationed there to pinch southern Ukraine.

Next destination from Russia?

Ever since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there has been speculation about where Russian President Vladimir Putin would send his troops next. Again and again there was and is talk of the pro-Russian Transnistria, the small de facto state within the Republic of Moldova.

“Similar to a de jure state, a de facto state has a territory and a population that is controlled and governed by a government. The difference is that de facto states are not recognized internationally,” explains Sabine von Löwis, who heads the research focus on conflict dynamics and border regions at the Center for East European and International Studies, in the ntv podcast “Learned again”.

The geographer explains that the reason for the lack of recognition of states often lies in the nature of the split. “That often doesn’t meet the expectations of the international community. Or you just didn’t part ways by mutual agreement.”

Mini state with Ukraine border

Transnistria directly borders Ukraine. The Black Sea with the port city of Odessa is not far. The area stretches over a 200-kilometer strip from the north-east to the south-east of the country and accounts for about ten percent of Moldova’s area.

The pseudo-state on the territory of the Republic of Moldova came into being a good 30 years ago when the Soviet Union collapsed. Moldova had declared its independence in August 1991, freed itself from control from Moscow and instead turned towards Romania. Romanian was declared the official and only official language. But the people in Transnistria didn’t want to go along with that – they split off from the Republic of Moldova.

The split was initiated by the “political-economic elite, with the support of the workforce,” says von Löwis. “As a result, this protest movement could be organized very well and counteracted the Romanization tendencies in Moldova.”

The protests culminated in a military conflict in 1992. Moldova tried to use force to tie the region to itself. “But that didn’t work because the Russian army also intervened there,” reports Sabine von Löwis. Finally, in 1992, a ceasefire agreement was agreed, which has held to this day.

200 euros income per month

The Transnistrian population lives in difficult conditions, most of the people are poor. The average income is around 200 euros per month. That’s around 100 euros less than the average income of people in Moldova. This is another reason why many people are leaving the country. The population has fallen sharply since the end of the Soviet Union. At the beginning of the 1990s, about 700,000 people lived in Transnistria, today there are officially only 460,000.

Under international law, Transnistria has everything that other states also have: a state people, a defined state territory and a government that exercises state power.

In addition, it has its own currency, even if the banknotes are worthless outside of the de facto state. Just like the Transnistrian passports, which cannot be used to cross borders anywhere in the world. About half of the residents are said to have a Russian passport.

Free gas, pension benefits, soldiers

Transnistria has been effectively independent from Moldova for almost 30 years. Under international law, however, the country is still part of Moldova because no state recognizes Transnistria as independent.

Not even Russia. Moscow ensures that Transnistria can reasonably survive economically. Russia supports the separatist region with free gas, pension subsidies and Russian soldiers who are still stationed in Transnistria as “peacekeepers”. Without Russia’s support, Transnistria could not survive as a de facto state and would likely have to rejoin Moldova. “In this way, Russia is creating ongoing instability in the region. As a result, Moldova will sooner or later not be able to integrate into the EU, even if it wants to. Russia therefore has influence on the edge of Europe,” explains von Löwis.

The EU works closely with Moldova and its pro-European President Maia Sandu. But admission to the EU is unthinkable as long as the republic is unstable. This also applies to admission to NATO. With a smoldering border conflict, the country has no chance of being accepted into either alliance.

A “sheriff” controls the country

All of this is in the interests of Russia, which can count on two powerful oligarchs in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria. Without Viktor Guschan and Ilya Kasmaly, hardly anything works in the small de facto state.

The two former Russian secret service agents run the sheriff group. By far the largest company in Transnistria controls about 60 percent of the country’s economy, reports Sabine von Löwis. The sheriff’s empire is responsible for 17 percent of Transnistria’s state revenues, while the company pays up to 50 percent into the state’s tax account. Sheriff runs all the gas stations in the country, has a mobile phone company, a liquor manufacturer, its own bank, a supermarket chain and a football club that even qualified for the Champions League for the first time last year, where it won against Real Madrid and Shakhtar Donetsk.

Sheriff was founded in 1993 by Wiktor Guschan and Ilja Kasmaly. The unusual name goes back to the original business concept. “They started a kind of security company for members of police families and then gradually started to control various legal and illegal trading systems. Originally it was about cigarettes. Later they took over various other lucrative trades and then they grew bigger and bigger,” reports Sabine von Löwis.

The group is said to have close ties to politics – especially to long-standing President Igor Smirnov, who ruled Transnistria from 1991 to 2011 with an iron hand and gave the sheriff group tax and customs benefits. In return, Sheriff has supported the government’s policies – including financially. This is how mutual dependencies developed.

Nothing works in Transnistria without a sheriff – and certainly not without Russia.

Moldova is afraid that Russia will one day absorb Transnistria completely, as Moscow did with Crimea in 2014 – and also plans to do with the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. What would Russia gain from this? If Putin created a land route from Crimea to Transnistria, Ukraine would be completely cut off from the Black Sea.