Ten days before the second round of the presidential election, opposing Emmanuel Macron (LREM) to Marine Le Pen (RN), more than 7 out of 10 French people have indicated their desire to go to the polls, according to a CSA poll for CNEWS published on Thursday 14 april.
In detail, among the panel of French citizens questioned for the purposes of this survey*, 72% of them indicated that they planned to vote in the second round of the presidential election.
Another lesson from this CSA study is that the older the respondents, the more they intend to take part in the vote. Indeed, 82% of French people aged over 65 said they would go to the voting booth, compared to 73% of 50-64 year olds, 72% of 35-49 year olds, 63% of 18-24 year olds and 59% of 25-34 year olds.
Another disparity was also expressed geographically with a planned abstention rate of 24% in Ile-de-France against 28% in the region. Also note the contrast according to gender with abstention estimated at 30% for women against 25% for men.
Nearly one out of two LFI voters plans not to vote
In terms of the political affiliation of the respondents, 89% of LREM sympathizers confirmed their intention to go to the polls, like 86% of PS and RN voters and 82% of Reconquest supporters.
On the other hand, 47% of LFI voters, visibly upset by the narrow elimination of Jean-Luc Mélenchon for this second round duel, indicated that they would not go to the polling stations on Sunday April 24. Finally, 23% of LR and EELV supporters also indicated that they would shun the second round of the election.
Towards historic abstention?
Constantly increasing since 2007, whether in the first or second round of successive presidential elections, abstention could reach peaks on 24th April next.
With a participation index assessed at 72%, abstention is thus estimated ten days before the second round of the presidential election at 28%, i.e. almost two points more than in the first round where abstention was by 26.3%.
An abstention rate, which if verified on Sunday April 24, would be historically high for a second round of the presidential election, because it has never been seen since 2002. However, it would not be a record in the Fifth Republic since abstention had reached 31.15% in 1969 during the duel between the Gaullist Georges Pompidou and the centrist Alain Poher.
* Survey carried out by self-administered online questionnaire, on April 12 and 13, 2022, with a sample of 1,010 people registered on the electoral lists representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method, at the with regard to the criteria of gender, age, socio-professional category, region and urban area category.