Emmanuel Macron has lost one point of voting intentions in a month (24%) but remains well ahead of the first round of the presidential election ahead of a trio made up of Valérie Pécresse (15.5%, =), Marine Le Pen (15 %, -0.5) and Eric Zemmour (14.5%, +1.5), according to an Ispos-Soprasteria poll published on Friday. In this large survey (12,499 people questioned) for Cevipof, the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and The worldthe most notable movement is the progression of the far-right polemicist who returns to the height of his two rivals on the right, taking advantage of their on the spot or their slight regression.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon widens the gap
On the left, the leader of the Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon continues to race in the lead (9%, +1). He even slightly widens the gap on the ecologist Yannick Jadot (7%, =) and on the former minister Christiane Taubira (5%, =). The communist candidate Fabien Roussel is also on the rise (3.5%, +1) and overtakes the socialist Anne Hidalgo, down (2.5%, -1).
Macron would beat Zemmour 62% – 38%
In the second round, Emmanuel Macron would win in all configurations, with stable scores: 54% – 46% against Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) and 57% – 43% against Marine Le Pen (RN). The outgoing president would beat Eric Zemmour by 62% – 38%. 65% of respondents say they are certain to vote, a drop of one point compared to January, and five points below the level reached in February 2017 before the previous presidential election. In terms of concerns, purchasing power is well ahead (52%), with a strong increase (+ 8 points in one month) while that for the Covid epidemic is falling sharply (18%, -17), to end up in 7th place.
Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the ballot. They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey. Survey carried out from February 3 to 7 by self-administered online questionnaire, with a sample of 12,499 people constituting a national representative sample of the French population, registered on the electoral lists, aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 0.2 and 0.9 points.