Poll numbers, process, candidates
What you should know about the election in Bavaria
October 8, 2023, 7:43 a.m
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Bavaria has the choice: the CSU and the Free Voters want to continue to govern together – but how strong will the two parties be in the future? What can the opposition do? The most important questions and answers.
After a sometimes heated election campaign, a new state parliament will be elected in Bavaria on Sunday. Around 9.4 million people are entitled to vote. This includes around 554,000 Bavarians who are allowed to cast their vote for the first time. While the CSU and Free Voters want to continue their coalition, the opposition parties are all hoping for the biggest possible gains.
Polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. Everyone has two votes, first vote and second vote. To determine the distribution of seats in the state parliament – unlike in a federal election – all first and second votes are added together and converted into mandates. The number of these “total votes” ultimately decides which party will have how many MPs in the future.
Surveys see CSU ahead
Prime Minister Markus Söder’s CSU was unchallenged in the lead in all surveys until recently, but at 36 to 37 percent it did not get beyond its historically poor election result from 2018 (37.2 percent). After the leaflet affair involving their boss Hubert Aiwanger, the Free Voters initially saw a significant increase, up to 17 percent. Most recently, the survey values settled at around 15 percent. In 2018 they got 11.6 percent.
Söder and Aiwanger have always stated that they want to continue their coalition, which has existed since 2018, even after the election. Unlike five years ago, Söder has ruled out an alliance with the Greens. It’s not just how well the CSU and Free Voters perform in the end that’s eagerly awaited. But also who comes second behind the CSU, the Greens, the Free Voters or perhaps the AfD. The SPD had recently failed to get above 9 percent in surveys. The FDP must therefore tremble as to whether it will reach the five percent mark.
In the past few weeks, the election campaign had been characterized less by factual politics than by mutual attacks and hostilities – between the CSU and Free Voters on the one hand and the traffic light parties on the other. But everyone has distanced themselves from the AfD.
New state parliament
A total of 91 direct and 89 list mandates are up for grabs in the state elections. However, Parliament can ultimately have more than 180 members, through so-called overhang and compensatory mandates. This year there are 1,811 candidates, 112 fewer than five years ago. The proportion of women is a good 34 percent.
After the 2018 election, the state parliament had six parliamentary groups – and a total of 205 members due to ten overhang and 15 compensatory mandates. In addition, Bavarians can vote on the district councils in the seven administrative districts on Sunday. While the preliminary final result of the state elections should be known late in the evening or at night, the results of the district elections will not be determined until later.