Population growth Switzerland – in 2023 the population could increase like never before – News


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The consulting firm Wüest Partner expects the permanent resident population to grow by 148,000. The Swiss population would never have increased so much in one year.

Jörg Schläpfer, head of macroeconomics at the real estate consulting firm Wüest Partner, explains his company’s forecast in the NZZ on Sunday. According to calculations by Wüest Partner, Switzerland will enter new spheres in terms of population growth in 2023. With an increase of 148,000 people, the increase roughly corresponds to the population of Bern.

Already a big increase in the previous year

Spread over 55,000 households, 74,000 more people lived in Switzerland last year. The federal government has predicted growth in the permanent resident population of this magnitude for 2023. Due to special effects that could not be estimated at the time of the federal government’s accounts, the number differs significantly from that of Wüest Partner. The special effects include, for example, the war in Ukraine and the corona pandemic.

These people are part of the permanent resident population


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At the end of 2022, Switzerland had around 8.8 million inhabitants. Refugees and asylum seekers are usually not included in this figure.

Refugees only count as permanent residents after they have stayed for twelve months. In 2023 there will also be a turnaround among the people affected by the war in Ukraine, which will increase the number of permanent residents.

As recently as 2010, the Federal Statistical Office predicted that Switzerland would only reach the threshold of 8.9 million inhabitants in 2055. The reality is different. According to forecasts by Hans R. Holdener, CEO of Helvetica Property Group, the threshold of 10 million Swiss people should be reached in ten years and not only in 2040. This mainly triggers problems with the demand for housing. Demand and supply would become more and more out of balance.

Who are these 148,000 people?

The birth surplus of around 8,000 people does not account for a large proportion of the growth in Swiss residents. The shortage of skilled workers is reflected much more. According to the Wüest Partner forecast model, there will be a net immigration of 91,000 workers.

These include 48,000 new Ukrainians as part of the permanent Swiss resident population. However, Schläpfer assumes that the effect on these people will be limited in time and expects that some of the refugees will return to Ukraine in the future.

Agglomeration is growing fastest

The agglomerations of large cities are regarded as growth regions, because people mostly look to the job offers. It will remain difficult for the mountain regions in the future, also due to the poorly developed infrastructure. In addition, rather small growth or even a decline in the permanent resident population is also expected in Ticino, since Italian citizens are increasingly returning to their homeland.

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