Populists are gaining influence
The shift to the right is affecting Europe across borders
September 30, 2024, 8:07 p.m
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The electoral successes of the FPÖ in Austria and the AfD in Thuringia are anything but an isolated event. According to experts, the success of populist parties is a cross-border phenomenon within the EU. The issues of migration and inflation in particular are giving the right-wing trend a boost.
The election evening on Sunday in Austria was somewhat reminiscent of that in Thuringia. To great cheers, a right-wing populist party became the strongest force. Neither the AfD in the eastern German state nor the FPÖ in the EU state of Austria seems to be able to rise to power as a result. But both times there was great shock in other political camps that the shift to the right was so clear. The election success is anything but an isolated event in Europe. If you look at the EU countries, it quickly becomes clear that the success of populist parties is a cross-border phenomenon.
According to Europe expert Nicolai von Ondarza from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), a migration-critical profile is the most important reason for this. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV won the election. In the three eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, the AfD performed very strongly – and the migration-critical BSW also achieved double-digit results straight away.
In another neighboring country, Poland, the national-conservative PiS party is also the strongest individual party in the EU with its very tough refugee policy. In its northern neighbor Denmark, the shift to the right was only averted because the Social Democratic government itself pursued a policy of isolation. There are also right-wing, migration-critical governments in Slovakia, Hungary and Italy.
Right-wing networks are fueling each other across borders
In addition to migration, the SWP expert from Ondarza also sees the issue of inflation as a reason for the right-wing trend. A feeling of insecurity and loss spread across Europe. In addition, there is a sluggish economy in many EU countries and identity crises. According to Infratest dimap, post-election surveys in Brandenburg showed that the AfD was disproportionately voted for by men, people with low school qualifications and those who feel economically weak.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly pointed out that the success of right-wing parties is now a phenomenon across almost all wealthy western countries – from the USA to Norway. In the Netherlands, for example, there is also a debate about whether the internationalization of study programs has gone too far – because young Dutch people can hardly study in Dutch in their own country anymore.
It is also because of such debates that right-wing parties are scoring differently than before, especially among young voters. “This is partly because populist parties are much more present on social networks where young people get information,” says SWP expert Ondarza. “And the right-wing parties are currently perceived as the only real alternative to the other groups,” he adds, referring to a certain level of rebellion among young voters.
It is now obvious that right-wing groups are also forming and supporting themselves across Europe. “In Austria, the FPÖ, a right-wing populist to right-wing extremist party, was already successful long before the AfD was even founded,” says the chairman of the European Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter. “The right-wing extremist youth organization ‘Identitarian Movement’ first spread in Austria before it was able to gain a foothold in Germany,” emphasizes the Green politician. Right-wing networks are fueling each other across borders.
“Firewall” first falls at the municipal level
In addition, there is a slow normalization process through – often out of necessity – cooperation with right-wing governments. The SPD MEP Katarina Barley had warned about this in connection with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. But because Meloni is needed for EU decisions on the one hand and, on the other hand, is pro-European, Chancellor Scholz coordinates with her. Right-wing foreign politicians in other countries take this as evidence that the warning against them is unjustified.
The Rassemblement National in France and the AfD are also counting on voters to slowly get used to them thanks to the many elected local representatives. The so-called “firewall” that other parties have against the AfD at the federal and state levels is the first to fall at the local level. Green politician Hofreiter accuses conservative parties of following right-wing extremists in Austria for years and picking up on their language and slogans. “This has in no way stopped the right-wing extremists. The opposite has happened. Right-wing populist and right-wing extremist positions have been normalized.”
For a long time, national-conservative governments like the one in Hungary were rather isolated in the EU. SWP expert von Ondarza recalls that Austria was threatened with sanctions in view of the FPÖ’s first participation in government. “But when the Wilders party came into government in the Netherlands, the protest was very muted,” he says. Precisely because this is a Europe-wide problem, an adjustment process has long been underway. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also appointed representatives of the Meloni party to the new commission.