Don’t trust Putin, be afraid of him and don’t be afraid to surprise him: Speaking to ntv, Ukraine’s ex-president Poroshenko urgently warns against the Russian head of state. At the same time he calls on Germany to take the initiative. The conflict concerns the future of Europe.
ntv: Mr President, we have now had seven years of war in Ukraine and since November we have had another dangerous escalation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. You have known Russian President Vladimir Putin for a long time. Is a solution with him even possible?
Petro Poroshenko: Strictly speaking, it’s not just seven years, but if you take February 20, 2014 as the deadline, it’s actually eight years. This is also not a frozen conflict, as is often said. This is a hot war all the time. Week after week, Ukrainian soldiers and innocent civilians are dying. And all the time we have Putin, the same Putin. He no longer sees himself as just the head of state in Russia, but sees himself as something between an absolute ruler and God.
What does he want to achieve?
When Putin started this war against Ukraine in 2014, he wasn’t just concerned with Crimea and Donbass. He doesn’t need Crimea for himself. And neither the Donbass. Putin wants and needs all of Ukraine. His dream is to form a new Soviet Union or a new Russian Empire. And Ukraine is the key piece of the puzzle for that. That’s why he wants all of Ukraine. However, I am confident that we can stop it. Or he will have to pay a huge, huge price for his crazy idea of continuing aggression against Ukraine in the form of a full-scale war.
You think Putin wants some kind of Soviet Union 2.0?
Yes, that’s his idea, his goal. In my experience, Putin will go as far as we allow him to implement it. Putin stops when he senses our strength, our unity. And here the USA, the EU and Germany in particular play a very important role.
in what sense?
Germany and Angela Merkel were, if you can use that word here, a kind of guardian angel for our country. With the support of Angela Merkel and with a leading role from Germany, we got an EU Association Agreement, which I signed in June 2014. Only with the leading role of Germany do we have a far-reaching and comprehensive free trade agreement. Only with the leading role of Germany do we have visa-free travel.
But let’s look at the current situation. On the one hand, we have the United States and Great Britain, which are ready to supply arms to Ukraine. Germany doesn’t want that, arguing that it would further increase the risk of war.
First of all, I really appreciate the role of the USA. It was the American intelligence services that gave us the first data on dangerous Russian troop movements on the border in October. I also appreciate Great Britain and my friend Boris Johnson, who was just a guest here in Kiev. But the most important thing for us is the support of the European Union. And this support is not primarily about the delivery of weapons. Germany plays a key role when it comes to the prospect of EU membership for Ukraine and also for Georgia. And this key role cannot be overstated. That was and is exactly the right answer to Putin’s blackmail strategy, which wants to bring NATO back to the 1997 level. Germany supports us in many ways and that is very important for us.
Poroshenko was President of Ukraine from May 2014 to April 2019. He became the first President after the Euromaidan protests in 2013/2014, which led to the overthrow of then-President Viktor Yanukovych. About 130 people died in the protests.
Poroshenko is considered an oligarch, with various companies he became a billionaire. He is currently under pressure in Ukraine. He has been accused of high treason and supporting terrorism since the end of December – he is said to have done illegal business with the separatists in eastern Ukraine. Poroshenko himself dismisses the allegations as “political persecution” of his successor at the head of state, Volodymyr Zelensky.
But again: Germany is not ready to supply arms to Ukraine at the moment, arguing with history. They do not want German weapons to be used again against Russia after the terrible Second World War. Do you understand?
We have never discussed offensive lethal weapons with Germany. Now, if we talk about the electronic warfare system, it is only to protect Ukraine. If we talk about artillery reconnaissance radars, then this is just a response to Russian artillery strikes. If we talk about anti-tank systems, this is the answer to offensive Russian tanks. This is an investment in German and European security. Germany should remember the Munich Agreement of 1938. The policy of appeasement at the time was a big mistake for Europe. We are waiting for Germany. Help us keep Europe together. We need European Union unity, we need European Union solidarity with Ukraine.
But there is precisely this unanimity, at least not as far as arms deliveries are concerned.
That’s correct. It’s not just about arms deliveries. Nord Stream 2 will be taken. Germany believes that it is about energy security and maybe economic security. I just want to appeal. It is a political tool for Putin. With Nord Stream 2 we give Putin, the aggressor, the opportunity to put pressure on Germany, pressure on Europe and pressure on Ukraine. And Putin is completely unpredictable. Germany should reconsider its position here.
Putin wants an agreement that states that NATO will no longer expand eastwards and that Ukraine can never become a NATO member. Is that something you could agree to if that would lead to de-escalation?
I have known Putin since 2005. I can give you three pieces of advice on how to communicate with Putin. First, don’t trust Putin. I just want to remind you that since 1994 we have had a Budapest memorandum with a personal guarantee from Russia. In 2014, when he attacked us, we had a personal security guarantee from Russia. In 2013, Putin publicly declared: “We will never attack Ukraine.” That was a personal guarantee from Putin. It wasn’t worth the paper he wrote that on. Second, don’t be afraid of Putin, please. If you are afraid of Putin, Putin will attack you. And if you are strong enough, Putin will never do that. Third, don’t be afraid to surprise Putin. If Putin says I don’t want Ukraine to join NATO, tell him we’re not in the Soviet Union anymore and you’re not the Secretary General of the Communist Party. That is a matter for the Ukrainian people and NATO member states. To answer your question: no, accepting this Putin demand, this Putin blackmail, is not an option at all for me.
Is Ukraine better prepared for Russian military intervention now than it was in 2014/2015?
Yes, a lot has changed. In 2014 we didn’t have an army, our currency reserves were $4,000, we had no guns. Now we have an army capable of fighting and defending the land. I am proud that we created this army. And we have a much better economy and a currency reserve of 30 billion.
Still, what would a Russian invasion mean for Ukraine and Europe?
We have been at war – I would like to remind you once again – for eight years now, and as I said, we now have a different Ukraine than eight years ago. We have an experienced army, we can increase the number of soldiers from 250,000 to 600,000 in a very short period of time. According to an opinion poll, 50 percent of Ukrainians are prepared to take up arms to defend their country. We would survive. Also thanks to the solidarity of the whole world.
And what would an invasion mean for Europe? The entire security architecture of the post-war and post-Cold War period would be out of joint.
Since 2014, the post-war security system based on the United Nations Security Council has been in ruins. Because one of the nations that is a permanent member of the Security Council is an aggressor. You are right, it would be a problem not only for Ukraine but for the whole world. The only instrument that guarantees us security is NATO. No Budapest memorandum, no Bucharest memorandum, no Geneva talks, nothing. That is why accession prospects are so important to us. This is different from 2014. Back then everyone thought “We have to support Ukraine, but it’s their problem”. Now everyone in Europe thinks “it’s my problem too”.
But you have to keep all diplomatic channels open…
No question, we do that too. I think we should make it even more active. We should show that the world is using all means and means to stabilize the situation and that the only person responsible is Putin. We should use the very effective tool of the Normandy format again. UN peacekeeping forces with a mandate from the UN Security Council were a central point in the coalition agreement of the old federal government. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, make this a top priority again! That would be a win not only for the Ukrainian people, but also for the German people and the peoples of Europe. In this way, Germany could prove its leading role in the European Union.
Dirk Emmerich spoke to Pedro Poroshenko