In Portugal there is a clear shift to the right after the elections. The current Socialist government has not managed to overcome the country’s crises, says Portugal expert Tilo Wagner.
SRF: What are the reasons for this shift to the right?
Tilo Wagner: In the last few months, a noticeable mood of crisis has spread in Portugal, which is manifested in this election result. The ruling socialists were clearly punished for policies that failed to solve the problems, particularly in the education and health sectors.
The corruption scandal actually didn’t help the center-right party.
The Portuguese, with their low wages, also have to struggle particularly with global inflation. This affects both property prices and rents. All these factors led people to want a change of government.
How much did the alleged corruption affair of the Socialist Party play into the winner’s hands?
The corruption scandal actually didn’t help the center-right party, also because it had its own corruption case a few weeks ago. The Chega party, on the other hand, benefited by focusing on this issue early on, even if the case has not yet been confirmed in court. Chega cleverly used this in the election campaign by talking about corruption and criticizing the traditional parties. As a result, it primarily attracted voters who did not feel represented by the established parties or who had not previously voted at all.
Legend:
Luis Montenegro, leader of the center-right party, (center) celebrates with his supporters after winning the election. (March 11, 2024)
Reuters/Armando Franca
The right-wing populist party Chega was founded in 2019, what makes it so popular?
Chega, led by André Ventura, a former member of the center-right party, gained popularity by recognizing early on that many potential voters felt unrepresented by the socialist government.
The socialists were in power for over 8 years. They found it difficult to convince people of their politics
Chega presented an election program that would be a financial disaster. Ventura promised massive tax cuts while increasing the state budget. In this respect, Chega is primarily a protest party that has won many young voters, not least through social media.
Let’s take another look at the loser of the early elections. The Socialist Party with Pedro Nuno Santos. Why did she do so poorly?
The socialists were in power for over 8 years. They found it difficult to convince people of their policies, especially of their successes, such as the reduction of national debt, a balanced budget or reasonably robust economic growth. These successes did not reach many people.
Forming a government will now be difficult. A coalition between the two major parties is out of the question. What does this mean for the stability of the country?
Nothing good. The socialist Pedro Nuno Santos had already refused to enter into a center-right alliance before the election. The head of the Liberal Conservative Party, Luis Montenegro, who narrowly won the election, now finds himself in a difficult position. He must decide whether to enter into an agreement with the right-wing populists in order to be able to govern.
However, he clearly rejected this in his victory speech. So he will initially govern alone in a minority government that only makes up a third of the members of parliament. This means that the government could quickly be brought down by a vote of no confidence.
The interview was conducted by Susanne Stöckl.