Lhe Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought the war back to the heart of Europe, and far beyond. We worry about the threat of an authoritarian State with expansionist wills, but the war poses a much more direct threat to the security of the world, through a specific mechanism: food insecurity.
A priori, the historical relationship between food insecurity and conflict is ambiguous. In mainly agricultural economies, the increase in food prices makes it more difficult to organize a rebellion or a war, since mobilizing the soldiers becomes very expensive: the cost comes not only from the food to be provided to the soldiers, but also because if the price of agricultural commodities soars, it becomes more profitable for a peasant to cultivate the land rather than join the ranks of an army. This is what economists call the “opportunity cost” of conflict. On the other hand, increased agricultural prices increase the value of land and can therefore incite conflict in order to seize land and capitalize on agricultural profits.
These arguments still apply today to countries where agriculture remains an important economic sector (59.5% of gross domestic product in Sierra Leone, 54% in Chad, 36% in Mali or Niger, depending on the world Bank), precisely those where food insecurity raises the greatest fear of an upsurge in conflict.
Is this fear justified? To answer this question, we must balance the disincentive effect of the cost of mobilizing an army against the incentive effect of controlling agricultural land. And to do this, it may be useful to look to the past for an example of an external agricultural shock, such as is today, for predominantly agricultural economies, the shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine.
2,477 battles analyzed
The introduction of the potato, originating from the Andean plateaus and cultivated for the first time in Europe in the 17the century, was an agricultural revolution for Europe. Surprisingly cold-resistant and providing almost all the vitamins necessary for human survival (apart from vitamins A and D) on its own, this tuber has improved food security. But has the potato been a factor of peace, or has it exacerbated the conflicts?
Three researchers have studied the statistical relationship between the prevalence of armed conflict and agricultural productivity in Europe (“ The Long-Run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900 », Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian, NBER working paper no. 24066). The authors analyzed 2,477 battles during 899 wars between 1400 and 1900, when the economy of European countries was still dominated by agriculture.
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