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It is a worryingly rapid development. After a Serbian combat team killed a Kosovo police officer last weekend and then engaged in a firefight with the Kosovo police, the American government is warning of a large Serbian troop deployment on the border with Kosovo this weekend.
There is no evidence that Serbian President Vucic was directly involved in the attack on the Kosovar police officer. Although it’s very unlikely that he didn’t know about it. Vucic’s long-time Kosovo Serb informant was directly involved in the fighting.
When it comes to the deployment of troops on the border with Kosovo, the case is clear: This will only happen if the Serbian president wants it. Maybe it’s another bluff of Vucic. It seems unlikely that Serbia will invade Kosovo, where more than 4,000 KFOR soldiers are stationed under NATO command. But to rule out this case would be foolish. Because Vucic is testing the limits more and more – so far he hasn’t had to fear any serious consequences. Why not go one step further, he might ask himself.
Fatal week
It is a fatal week for Kosovo, but also a fatal week for Western diplomacy. Current events make it clear that the EU, which has been mediating unsuccessfully in the so-called normalization process between Kosovo and Serbia for years, has failed with its previous strategy supported by the USA.
In the hope of dissuading the Serbian president from his Russia-friendly course, he has been treated with great care by the EU and the USA in recent years. While Kosovo is currently subject to Western sanctions, these have been waived against Serbia. An invitation for Vucic to continue to test the limits.
Late realization
After this week, the realization that this strategy has failed also appears to have reached the EU headquarters in Brussels and Washington. The rhetoric towards Belgrade has at least noticeably worsened. While in the past people automatically called on “both sides” to de-escalate, the corresponding statements are now explicitly aimed at Serbia.
It’s a late realization. And harsher rhetoric is not enough. With their current strategy in Kosovo diplomacy, the EU and the USA are jointly responsible for what is happening in the region. A new crisis in the Western Balkans cannot be in the interests of the EU. It is therefore required first and foremost. For example with sanctions against Serbia. This is the only way the EU can restore its lost credibility as a mediator between Kosovo and Serbia – it is high time for this.