The potential collapse of the Assad regime in Syria prompts uncertainty about the country’s future, with President Biden expressing support for a peaceful power transition. Discussions of a transitional government are underway, led by figures like Prime Minister al-Jalali and Islamist leader al-Jolani. Amid concerns about minority representation and the risk of Islamist governance, rebuilding efforts face significant challenges. The international response has varied, with hopes for a stable future for Syrian refugees amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
What Lies Ahead After the Assad Regime’s Collapse in Syria? The potential fall of the Assad government raises numerous questions about Syria’s future. President Biden has expressed willingness to assist in the transition of power. Yet, the path forward remains uncertain, causing concern among the Syrian populace, according to experts.
Following the entry of Islamist forces into Damascus, Prime Minister Mohamed al-Jalali announced his readiness to facilitate a transfer of authority. But what might this transition entail?
Reports indicate that Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is already in discussions with the government regarding the power shift. A video circulating among rebel factions depicted armed fighters escorting Prime Minister al-Jalali while he was engaged in a phone conversation.
Prospects of a Transitional Government
ARD correspondent Ramin Sina shared insights on the discussions surrounding a potential transitional government comprising four leaders. However, the specifics of who will be included and whether this plan will materialize remain unverified. Moreover, there are concerns about the representation of minority groups in this new government. For now, militias need to establish firm control over Damascus, as reports of looting, arson, and a curfew have surfaced. Sina noted that the political trajectory will become clearer in the upcoming days.
Bente Scheller, a political scientist at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, highlights the mixed emotions among Syrians. While there is excitement, there is also a pervasive fear regarding the potential rise of Islamist governance. “I don’t know anyone among the Syrians who isn’t grappling with the anxiety of uncertainty,” she stated.
The Challenge of Rebuilding Syria
As efforts to forge a new regime begin, they are likely to encounter considerable opposition. Scheller contends that recreating an authoritative rule in Syria, reminiscent of the Assad era, will be a formidable challenge. “The population, with half displaced by the ongoing conflict, possesses a strong spirit of resistance,” she noted. This moment is viewed by many not merely as a victory for the Islamists but as a collective achievement of the Syrian people.
The abrupt departure of Bashar al-Assad marks the end of his 24-year reign in Syria.
Biden’s Call for a New Beginning
President Joe Biden has offered support for a peaceful transition in Syria, emphasizing communication with “all Syrian groups” to facilitate a shift towards an independent Syria, under the auspices of the United Nations. He described the regime’s fall as a pivotal moment for justice and an opportunity for the Syrian people to construct a brighter future. Biden stressed the importance of accountability for Assad, who is rumored to be in Moscow, according to various Russian news reports.
With the Islamists now in control of Damascus, their foremost aim appears to be the prevention of chaos.
Reactions from Allies and Refugee Concerns
While Russia has been a stalwart ally of Assad, Iran, another key supporter, stated that they were not consulted for assistance during this upheaval. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtchi indicated that while Iran expected a prolonged civil conflict, the rapidity of Assad’s downfall was unforeseen. He also reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to its strategic position against Israel will persist.
The global response celebrated the fall of Assad, including jubilations in Germany, marked by peaceful demonstrations and car convoys.
As discussions continue about the future of Syrian refugees, Green politician Anton Hofreiter cautioned against adopting stricter policies towards them. He stated, “It is utterly unclear how the situation in Syria will evolve.” Meanwhile, CSU’s Andrea Lindholz advocated for halting the acceptance of Syrian refugees, claiming Germany has fulfilled its humanitarian duties. Conversely, migration expert Gerald Knaus views Assad’s departure as a potential turning point for refugee stability, suggesting that if peace is achieved, it could significantly alter the refugee landscape in Europe.