(Boursier.com) — THE TREND
The CAC40 is expected to fall to end this week of August 15. A Friday that promises to be calm with particularly hollow news, whether at the micro or macro level. Third Friday of the month obliges, this ‘day of the three witches’ could however lead to an access of volatility. On the macro front, speculation on the next monetary policy decisions of the ECB and the Fed continues to animate the debates.
“We’re at a point where investors are wondering if inevitably higher interest rates are going to put an end to the upward movement of the markets,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon. “There are really two sides – one that thinks the worst is behind us and continues to buy, and one that thinks the worst is yet to come and anticipates a downward move in the market.”
On the microphone side, we note a good order from SNCF with Alstom as well as good news for Valneva, whether for its vaccine against Covid-19 or its single-injection vaccine candidate against chikungunya.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose by 0.1% against a basket of currencies and approached parity against the euro ($1.0086). Bitcoin drops 2.8% over 24 hours to $22,745 on Coindesk.
A barrel of WTI crude for September delivery fell 0.7% to $89.9 in electronic trading on the Nymex after two rising sessions. The ounce of gold yields 0.1% to $1,756.
WALL STREET
US markets struggled to find direction on Thursday night, still looking for clues regarding future policy decisions from the Fed, the day after the release of its latest minutes. After much hesitation, the three major indices finally closed narrowly higher. The results of the day were received to varying degrees, with strong growth for Cisco (+5.7%), but down sharply for Kohls (-7%). At the close of Wall Street, the Dow Jones shows a symbolic gain of 0.06% to 33,999 points and the S&P500 nibbles 0.23% to 4,283 points. the Nasdaq advance of 0.21% to 12,965 points.
ECO AND CURRENCIES
The consumer is resisting in the UK… although this is not likely to last. British retail sales rose by 0.3% in July against an expected decline of 0.2% and a drop of 0.2% in June. Year-on-year, sales fell by 3.4% against -3.3% consensus. Excluding fuel, sales show an increase of 0.4%, specifies the National Statistics Office. The market was expecting a decline of 0.3%. Alongside these rather robust data, the British consumer confidence index measured by the GfK institute fell to a record low of -44 in August (-3 points) as worries about a coming recession increased further. The Bank of England has warned that the country is likely to be hit by a deep and long recession as inflation is expected to top 13% in the coming months.
In Germany, producer prices rose sharply in July, posting an increase of 5.3% against +0.6% the previous month. The consensus was also positioned at +0.6% for July. Year on year, prices soared by 37.2% against +32% expected.
No other major indicator is on the program this Friday.
VALUES TO FOLLOW
*Alstom. SNCF has approved an additional order fromAlstom of 15 new-generation Avelia Horizon (TGV) very high-speed trains, for an amount of nearly 590 million euros. This optional tranche of the Avelia Horizon Innovation Partnership contract is the second of this new generation of very high-speed trains, completing the 100 trains ordered by SNCF Voyageurs intended for commercial operation in France.
* Valneva has begun submitting the marketing authorization application dossier to the US health authority, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), for its single-shot chikungunya vaccine candidate in 18-year-olds and more. This marketing authorization application follows the final Phase 3 data announced in March 2022 and the final results of the clinical batch homogeneity trial announced in May 2022. A clinical study of VLA1553 in adolescents is underway in Brazil, to potentially enable future regulatory submissions regarding this age group if VLA1553 is approved for use in adults. Valneva expects to complete the submission of the dossier by the end of 2022.
* Abionyx Pharma indicates that its cash position stood at 4 ME at June 30, before collection of the CIR. The company recorded a consolidated half-year turnover of 2.63 ME, after elimination of intra-group transactions. The consolidated turnover reflects the fact that since the integration of IRIS Pharma, the biotech has decided to focus its efforts on preclinical studies of bio-HDL in ophthalmology, in order to determine the strategic axes of development for enter the clinical phase as soon as possible. As previously announced, the company will soon communicate its strategy in ophthalmology.
* ITLink achieved a half-yearly turnover of 32.46 ME, up by +9.7%. The solutions activities (2.94 ME) benefited from the good health of license sales and are gradually returning to growth (+0.9%). Services activities climbed to 29.52 ME. For 2022, Management is maintaining its revenue growth target of between 8 and 10%, while remaining attentive to the evolution of macroeconomic, geopolitical and health situations.
* Sodexo. Jefferies downgraded the value to ‘hold’ while reducing its target from 91 to 88 euros.