Presidential 2022: how are the results calculated at 8 p.m.?

This is a question that everyone asks themselves on the day of the second round of the presidential election. How are the results calculated, and how are they ready to be announced at 8 p.m. while the polling stations close at this same time?

Information professionals, the journalists of BFMTV carried out their investigation this Sunday, April 24 with Bernard Sananès, president of the institute of studies Elabe, who also intervened on the set this afternoon.

Counting and an algorithm for a reliable result from 8 p.m.

When presenter Ronald Guintrange then asked him to explain to viewers the underside of the famous 8 p.m. results, Bernard Sananès replied simply and clearly without, however, omitting any details: “First, you have to wait until the polling stations have closed. An estimate is not a survey, we work from the first 100 ballots counted, then the first 200 ballots counted, then all the first ballots counted in all the polling stations. We choose a sample of 300 polling stations for BFMTV and our partners who represent the vote of France in the last polls and the investigators of our partners send us the first ballots counted.

Bernard Sananès then explained the role that the algorithm plays in the results of the votes: “So there is this counting, we transmit the results and, then it’s much more complicated than that, I’m just telling you, the algorithm compares the results of these first ballots counted to the same results 5 years ago, 2 years ago in the various important elections, and as these comparisons progress, the estimate becomes more refined, and then between 7:30 p.m. and 7:45 p.m., the estimate begins to stabilize. When it stabilizes, we can give you a reliable result, even if it will obviously continue to move between 8 p.m. and 9:30 p.m.you remember it was the case on the evening of the first round. he concluded.

That is clear.

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