Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are qualified for the second round of the presidential election. But beyond the result, several lessons can be learned from this first ballot.
A new duel Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen qualified for the second round of the presidential election. In five years, the two candidates have improved their results. The outgoing president, who had obtained 24.01% of the votes cast in the first round of 2017, obtained 27.9% on April 10, 2022 (according to the latest OpinionWay estimates for CNEWS). For her part, the candidate of the National Rally goes from 21.30% of the votes cast to 23.3%.
A new face to face which will be an opportunity for Marine Le Pen to take revenge. In 2017, his mid-tower campaign was called a fiasco by some. The candidate had however managed to gather 34% of the votes in the second round.
For the moment, many unsuccessful candidates have already announced that they will vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round. This is the case of Yannick Jadot (EELV), Anne Hidalgo (PS), Fabien Roussel (PCF). Valérie Pécresse, for her part, announced that she would vote for Emmanuel Macron without giving any voting instructions.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, third man in the campaign, calls not to “give a single voice to Marine Le Pen”, without giving instructions to vote in the direction of Emmanuel Macron. The RN candidate can however count on the support of Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who both called to vote for her.
The traditional parties sign their worst scores
For traditional parties, such as Les Républicains and the Socialist Party, this first round of the 2022 presidential election will leave a bitter taste. The two parties which once reigned in turn over the polls are reduced to simple minority parties and sign the worst scores in their history in the presidential election.
Valérie Pécresse, who was the candidate of the Republicans, obtained 4.6% of the votes cast, while Anne Hidalgo, representative of the Socialist Party, collapses to 1.8%. For both parties, these poor scores mean two things: below the 5% mark, the two parties will not be reimbursed for their campaign costs and will have to reinvent themselves in order to be able to bounce back during the June 2022 legislative elections.
Left-wing voters gathered behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon
If he is not qualified for the second round, Jean-Luc Mélenchon achieves his best performance, with 22% of the vote according to the latest estimates. In 2012, during his first participation, he obtained 11.1% of the vote, and 19.58% of the vote in 2017. This breakthrough could be explained by a gathering of left-wing sympathizers: half of the voters of Jean- Luc Mélenchon said they voted “useful”, according to an OpinionWay poll for CNEWS. The boss of France Insoumise (LFI) was indeed the best placed in the polls against Emmanuel Macron (LREM) and Marine Le Pen (RN).
A very strong abstention in the first round
An increasingly present phenomenon during the elections, abstention does not spare the presidential election. For this first round, 27.4% chose to abstain. An extremely high rate but lower than that of 2002 which accounted for 28.4% of abstainers.
Paris seems to have followed the trend of abstention and risks signing a new record. At 5 p.m., the turnout was 52.17% compared to 64.51% in 2017, more than 12 points lower.
Purchasing power, priority of the French
Security, environment, immigration… Many topics were discussed during the campaign, but nothing interested the French as much as purchasing power. 60% of them cited it as a determining issue in their choice of vote, according to an OpinionWay poll for CNEWS. And the candidates in the second round have understood this well. While energy prices are soaring, Marine Le Pen proposes to lower the VAT on petrol, gas and electricity from 20% to 5.5%. Emmanuel Macron defends the tripling of the Macron bonus and the abolition of the TV license fee.