Emmanuel Macron in a strong position. The President of the Republic, not yet officially a candidate for re-election, is far ahead of his competitors with 27% of the voting intentions, according to the first Ifop-Fiducial “rolling” for Paris Match, LCI and Sud Radio published this Monday, January 10. Behind him, the candidate of the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen, manages to convince, for the moment, only 17.5% of the voters. She is just ahead of the candidate invested by Les Républicains (LR), Valérie Pécresse (15.5%). In the second round, the current tenant of the Élysée would win in the two scenarios tested, whether against Marine Le Pen (58% -42%) or against Valérie Pécresse (54% -46%) .
On the far right, Eric Zemmour, a time close to Marine Le Pen in the polls, moves away a little with 12.5% of the voting intentions. On the left, the three main candidates, who cannot agree on a union, are lagging behind. The leader of La France insoumise (LFI) Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the best placed with 9.5% of the voting intentions, ahead of the ecologist Yannick Jadot (6%). As for the socialist Anne Hidalgo, who wanted to see her competitors comply with a primary of the left – which addressed a clear and definitive refusal to her – she only gathered 4% of the voting intentions.
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No Taubira effect
In the event of the candidacy of Christiane Taubira, who announced that she wanted to submit to the popular primary – she is the only one for the moment – the scores on the left would melt slightly: 8.5% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 5.5% for Yannick Jadot and only 3.5% for Anne Hidalgo… as for Christiane Taubira herself.
Communist candidate Fabien Roussel gathers 2.5% of the voting intentions (2% if Christiane Taubira is a candidate), Nicolas Dupont-Algnan (Debout la France) 2%, Philippe Poutou (New Anti-Capitalist Party) and Jean Lassalle 1% each, and Nathalie Arthaud (Lutte Ouvrière), Arnaud Montebourg and Hélène Thouy (Animalist Party) 0.5% each.
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Note that within 100 days of the presidential election, scheduled for April 10 and 24, 65% of voters think they will vote (78% had come during the first round in 2017). In addition, 68% of those who think of going to vote say they are sure of their choice. It is the potential voters of Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour who are the least volatile (80% and 79% respectively). Conversely, only 42% of those who think they will vote Anne Hidalgo are sure to do so on April 10.
The “rolling” method is based on a wave of daily surveys, based on a sliding sample of 1,500 people. Concretely, around 500 people are questioned every day by the pollster, making it possible to renew the sample every three days and to monitor voting intentions over time. “In total, more than 50,000 people will be questioned during the 15 weeks of the presidential campaign covered by the device,” said Ifop.